Model Predicts 187K Total Coronavirus Cases In VA By Thanksgiving

VIRGINIA — As the state surpasses 120,000 total cases, the University of Virginia's COVID-19 model suggests Virginia could see over 187,000 total cases by Thanksgiving. Researchers are now basing their model on "adaptive fitting" methodology, tracking past and current trends to predict future cases. Projections are based on recent trends the model learns through precise fitting of each county's cases. The model replaces the eight scenarios approach used in previous weeks.

"With the new modeling approach, the current course predicts that confirmed cases already peaked at 7,358 cases per week during the week ending August 9th," reads the latest weekly report on the model. "With cases continuing on this trajectory, we would expect 187,883 total confirmed cases by Thanksgiving. Anticipated seasonal changes in the Fall due to schools and universities re-opening, changes to workplace attendance, and the impact of weather patterns could lead to a surge beginning around Labor Day."

As school districts around Virginia begin the school year with virtual learning, in-person learning, or both, the model will wait to see the impact of school reopening decisions. Those impacts may vary based on factors like school size and public health precautions.

For now, the UVA model examines likelihood of at least one infected student by county using incidence rates among school-aged children in the previous week. Higher education institutions like Virginia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth University, and University of Virginia have already seen self-reported cases and created data dashboards for cases, testing and other information.

According to the Virginia Department of Education, 10 school divisions are reopening for in-person instruction, 25 are partially in person (four or more in-person days for students), four are all hybrid (all students in person less than four days in person), four are partially hybrid (some students in person for less than four days), and 68 are fully virtual. All of Northern Virginia's school divisions are fully virtual.

Coronavirus Data Update

The Virginia Department of Health reported 847 additional coronavirus cases on Monday, 247 of which are in the Northern Virginia region. There were 11 new deaths reported statewide, including five in Northern Virginia The cumulative totals are 120,594 cases, 2,580 deaths, and 9,569 hospitalizations.

The latest 7-day average of new cases is 995, less than the 1,075 average on July 31. The average has fluctuated in August, partly due to a backlog of cases from Aug. 5 to 7. That resulted in 2,015 cases being reported on Aug. 7 and has affected the 7-day average.

Northern Virginia, however, has seen new cases remain relatively stable. Through much of August, the new case average has been in the 200 range and was in the upper 100s from mid-June through most of July. The latest 7-day average for the region was 245. By comparison, other regional averages are 226 in the southwest region, 215.9 in the eastern region, 178.6 in the central region and 129.4 in the northwest region.

The average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations has started to fall but remains in the 1,000 range. As of Monday, 1,082 patients are hospitalized statewide, led by the eastern region with 351. Other hospitalizations by region include 267 in the northern region, 214 in the central region, 148 in the southwest region and 102 in the northwest region.

According to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association, the hospitalizations include 146 on ventilators and 257 in the intensive care units. Ventilator use is at 19 percent statewide, and ICU capacity is at 77 percent. The 2019 statewide average for ICU occupancy was 67 percent. There are two hospitals reporting difficulty obtaining personal protective equipment in the next 72 hours.

There have been 1,581,291 PCR tests completed so far in Virginia, up 13,097 from Sunday. As of Aug. 28, the statewide average of positive tests is 7.4 percent. Averages by region include 6.3 percent in the northern region, 8.6 percent in the eastern region, 8.3 percent in the southwest region, 7.8 percent in the central region, and 7.2 percent in the northwest region.

Here are the latest case updates for our coverage areas between Sunday and Monday:

• Alexandria: 3,378 cases, 298 hospitalizations, 62 deaths; increase of nine cases
• Arlington County: 3,555 cases, 467 hospitalizations, 138 deaths; increase of 15 cases, one hospitalization and one death
• Fairfax County: 18,417 cases, 2,056 hospitalizations, 558 deaths; increase of 107 cases, two hospitalizations and three deaths
• Fairfax City: 120 cases, 13 hospitalizations, seven deaths; no changes
• Falls Church: 66 cases, 11 hospitalizations, seven deaths; no changes
• Loudoun County: 5,979 cases, 384 hospitalizations, 118 deaths; increase of 34 cases and one hospitalization
• Manassas: 1,805 cases, 126 hospitalizations, 23 deaths; increase of 10 cases
• Manassas Park: 565 cases, 53 hospitalizations, seven deaths; increase of three cases
• Prince William County: 10,836 cases, 854 hospitalizations, 185 deaths; increase of 69 cases and one death
• Fredericksburg: 481 cases, 47 hospitalizations, five deaths; increase of two cases
• Spotsylvania County: 1,801 cases, 119 hospitalizations, 38 deaths; increase of eight cases
• Stafford County: 1,704 cases, 136 hospitalizations, 10 deaths; increase of 13 cases

SEE ALSO:

• College Campuses Report Cases, Positive Average Up In NW Virginia
  
• NoVA Coronavirus Hospitalizations Trending Up As Tidewater Falls
• Virginia Health Commissioner Plans To Mandate Coronavirus Vaccine
• VA Study To Examine Coronavirus Antibodies In Kids, Teens