DC Area Winter Outlook: Cold Start But Below-Average Snowfall

VIRGINIA/DC — The Capital Weather Gang published its 2021-22 winter weather outlook for the Washington, D.C., area on Wednesday, following the winter forecasts released in October by AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In its winter outlook, the Capital Weather Gang, part of The Washington Post, projected big swings in temperatures this winter but below-average snowfall for the fifth time in the past six winters.

“The mercury will be prone to both springlike spikes and bone-chilling plunges,” the Capital Weather Gang said. “But overall, temperatures should work out close to average.”

While the meteorologists at the Capital Weather Gang are projecting below-average snow totals this winter, they believe snow totals will surpass last winter’s snow totals — a measly 6 to 10 inches across the Washington, D.C. metro area.

The amount of snowfall might not come close to snowmageddon levels, but there are likely to be many storms to hit the region this winter, the forecasters said.

"We predict we’ll have several accumulating snow events in the immediate area over the course of the winter, with a couple more in our colder suburbs. This doesn’t include dustings or ice events; we are likely to have some of those, too," the Capital Weather Gang said.

"The odds of a blockbuster nor’easter coming up the coast and walloping us with snow is lower than average, but can’t be entirely ruled out," the forecasters added.

In its winter 2021-22 forecast released in October, AccuWeather predicted 7 to 11 inches of snow in the D.C. area, compared to the region's winter average of 15.6 inches.

The first half of December shows high temperatures touching 60 degrees on many days before some cold spells begin to move into the D.C. area, according to AccuWeather

Above-average temperatures are expected in D.C. and Virginia as La Nina climate conditions are emerging for the second winter in a row, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 2021 Winter Outlook.

The NOAA forecast sees enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic region, including the metropolitan D.C. area.

The Capital Weather Gang predicts a colder-than-normal December. D.C. has not seen more than two inches of snow during the month of December in more than a decade. "Maybe this year can end the streak," the forecasters said.

"January should provide additional windows of opportunity for snow, while wintry weather may fade in February," they added.

Temperature-wise, the Capital Weather Gang is predicting below-average temperatures in December, average temperatures in January and above-normal temperatures in February. This forecast goes against recent trends in the D.C. area, where January temperatures have trended above-normal and February temperatures have been below-normal.

As for snowfall, the Capital Weather Gang forecasts 8 to 12 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport, compared with a 13.7-inch average, and 12 to 16 inches of snow at Dulles International Airport, compared with a 21-inch average.

For the Capital Weather Gang's complete winter weather outlook, visit its online forecast.

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