Will Virginia See Fresh Snow This Christmas Holiday Weekend?

VIRGINIA/DC — For some, the holidays simply aren’t the same without a blanket of fresh, white snow on the ground. But what are the odds of actually experiencing this simple pleasure on Christmas Day in Virginia?

A white Christmas could be hard to come by in some parts of the United States this year, according to newly released forecasts by prognosticators including Farmers’ Almanac and AccuWeather.

Meanwhile, other states face an even greater chance for snow thanks to La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon during which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels.

La Niña played a major role in this year’s predictions, according to AccuWeather, tending to steer storms northward and cutting off moisture to the southern portion of the United States.

So what does this mean for Virginia this Christmas? Will we see fresh snow this holiday weekend?

It’s not likely, according to Farmers’ Almanac’s Christmas 2021 forecast.

SEE ALSO: Virginia Weather Forecast

Residents of Virginia can expect dry and cold weather for Christmas and through the weekend. In the Northeast U.S., scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in some areas, according to the Farmers' Almanac.

Those in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Midwest can expect a frigidly cold Christmas. In the Southeast, it will be dry and cold through that weekend. States in the northern Plains can expect fair skies and fair temperatures, while some Southern states including Texas and New Mexico should brace for cold weather.

Using three decades worth of climatological measurements, the Farmers’ Almanac annually predicts the probability that a snow depth of at least 1 inch will be recorded on Christmas Day in Virginia.

The chances are between 10 and 25 percent that there will be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties as well as D.C., according to the Farmers’ Almanac. For the Fredericksburg area, the chances are below 10 percent for at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

While the most popular definition of a white Christmas is the presence of significant snow cover, it is also worth considering the climatological probability of snowfall on Christmas Day since many cultural references to Christmas invoke an image of snowflakes.

In D.C. and Virginia, there is between a 5 and 25 percent change of any snowfall on Christmas Day.

The only places in the U.S. where the probabilities exceeded 50 percent were isolated mountain locations in the West, some stations on the lee side of Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, and some weather stations in northern New England.

In the Sierras, Cascades, the leeward side of the Great Lakes and northern New England, Christmas snow cover is a near certainty, Farmers’ Almanac says. In these regions, most precipitation in late autumn and early winter falls as snow, making the probability of snowfall exceed 25 percent.

At higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains and at many locations between the northern Rockies and New England, the probability of snow on the ground is more than 50 percent.

For those who opt for a green Christmas, the best places to be in late December will be Southern California, the lower elevations of the Southwest, and Florida.

Of course, Farmers’ Almanac isn’t the only expert in predicting holiday weekend weather. AccuWeather also released its 2021 holiday forecast this week, and its predictions are similar.

In Northern Virginia, AccuWeather's extended forecast is calling for a high of 50 degrees and a low of 26 degrees on Saturday, Dec. 25.

AccuWeather also looks at the historical probability that residents of Virginia will have a white Christmas. Typically, there’s a 5 to 25 percent chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground by the holiday weekend in D.C. and the inner suburbs and a 25 to 50 percent chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in Virginia's outer suburbs.

With the La Niña phase in place, areas across the interior Northeast U.S. will have a higher probability than average of having a white Christmas. However, the same cannot be said for D.C. and Virginia.

This year, the odds of a white Christmas in D.C. and Virginia are lower than normal, according to AccuWeather.

The fascination with a white Christmas was likely popularized by the writings of Charles Dickens. The depiction of a snow-covered Christmas season in his 1843 classic “A Christmas Carol,” and a number of his other short stories, was reportedly influenced by memories of his childhood.

The song “White Christmas,” written by Irving Berlin and sung by Bing Crosby, is among the best-selling singles of all time. The tune nostalgically speaks of a white Christmas and has since become embedded in American holiday traditions.

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