Overstepping a Mandate and Ending a Vice Presidential Run Before it Starts

Back in December, Gov. Bob McDonnell was the darling of the conservative movement and presumably at the top of any vice-presidential shortlist for any of the Republican presidential frontrunners. His personal friendship with Texas Gov. Rick Perry made him an obvious choice there, and his conservative credentials as a popular Southern Governor focused on job creation made him palatable for the more moderate Romney while providing balance and comfort to critics of the New England Governor. His 62% approval rating (and only 22% disapproval) made him the obvious choice. 

Adding to that, the state legislature was the only state surveyed by Quinnipiac with a positive net approval rating. Their DC neighbors could only dream of equaling the 47% approval (compared to 37% disapproval) held by the folks down in Richmond. Oh what a difference a session makes...

The results of a new Quinnipiac poll show a significant drop in approval for both Gov. Bob McDonnell and the VA legislature. Governor McDonnell's approval is now at 53%, down 9 points from only a few months ago, and has become the butt of late night talk show jokes. Up until this session he had been politically brilliant, pushing job creation and touting VA's pro-business credentials above all else, making the discussion of the infamous thesis a distant memory. I said it before I had this blog (so you'll just have to trust me), but the worst thing that ever happened to the governor is that his coattails were long enough to bring in just enough legislators to provide a bare majority for the Republican Party. Enter the legislature.

The minute the Republican legislature took over, the focus went away from jobs and began over-reading into their mandate. They believed they were elected to take on the social ills of VA, returning to a previous era. Abortions, unrestricted gun ownership, and ID cards became the focus of this perceived mandate rather than an extension of the popular governor's agenda. They got lost in the echo chamber and are now finding out the hard way that they may have misinterpreted the will of the voters. 

The Quinnipiac polls says that "Women disapprove of the new ultrasound/abortion law 49 - 44 percent, while men disapprove 56 - 38 percent." The news is equally bad when they report that disapproval is "56 - 39 percent among independent voters." The gun law wasn't much better, with the report stating "Voters also prefer 53 - 40 percent Virginia's old law which limited an individual's handgun purchases to one per month, over the new law which has no limits." These, along with failling to pass a budget, were probably the marquee laws passed by the legislature this term and signed by the governor.

Governor McDonnell for his part made a political hash out of things, supporting the bill but standing against the transvaginal ultrasound provision. Either mismanagement of political tone-deafness seems to have made him believe that this would be a comfortable middle ground, but instead showed a capitulation to the pro-choice movement while not doing nearly enough to actually make them happy. Honestly, I had expected far more political astuteness from the man who so deftly parried the first attack against the almost forgotten thesis, but he was unable to exercise control over the Republicans in the legislature and they brought him down the wrong road. He couldn't even take credit for leadership on the bills, as he was so often willing to point out that other states had similar requirements. Not only was he taking an unpopular position with the voters, but it was an unoriginal one as well. The national party may appreciate this, but much like President Obama allowed Democrats in Congress to walk off the healthcare cliff for him 2 years ago, the GOP won't repay his loyalty with anything other than a ceremonial position in the party machine after his time as Governor is over.

At the end of the day, the VA legislature can recover from this, but Governor McDonnell's failure to lead and keep the focus on job creation combined with his mishandling of the abortion controversy will probably cost him a shot at the vice-presidential nomination. As Romney continues his march toward the top of the ticket, there are too many other choices. If he wants a Southern swing state governor Marco Rubio would be better, and if he wants someone with a history of job creation and strong budgetary management Chris Christy would be better, and if he wants an innovative, strong conservative, well there are countless better choices there. This was a costly lesson in national politics for Gov. McDonnell, and hopefully one he can learn from before 2016 comes around.