Your Super Tuesday Viewing Guide

So my first blog post () talked about how political junkies can let their obsessions rest – Cantor’s endorsement basically signaled that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has crossed the tipping point and will inevitably be the Republican nominee for Congress. But for those of you who need your political fix tonight, I’ve prepared a viewing guide for tonight’s Super Tuesday primaries. Think of this post as your Cliff’s Notes to tonight’s results and what to expect tomorrow. 

Things to look for :

 -       Ohio: Romney seems to have all the momentum, picked up some major endorsements from prominent politicians and all of the major newspapers, and the national trends seem to indicate things are going in his direction. However, Santorum was polling somewhere between 6-9 points ahead less than a week ago, so it will be interesting to see if he can hold on for a squeaker.

• If Romney wins here, he can make the case it’s over.
• If Santorum barely hangs on, we do this all for another couple weeks.

-       Tennessee and Oklahoma: These are ones that Santorum should win fairly easily, and the expectations game plays against him.

• If Romney wins even one of these, it’s over. We unofficially have our Republican nominee.
• If he loses in a close race in both, we do this all for another couple weeks but it’s basically over.
• If Santorum convincingly wins both of these it may keep doubt alive enough to stop the inevitability of Romney (although Santorum will have to figure out how he’s going to get any sort of organization in the rest of the states).

Things to not care about:

-       Delegate count. Tonight isn’t going to be about delegate count, no one will get a majority tonight and the arcane rules mean that it’s unlikely that anyone will make any noticeable headway. Even if Santorum does well in Ohio, some sloppy campaign work on his part means he doesn’t have a full slate of delegates anyway. What tonight is about is can Romney finally put an end to the rollercoaster? The answer lies in winning states, not delegates.

-       Gingrich’s big win in Georgia. This is his home state and he’s expected to do very well despite his ultimate irrelevance to the race at this point.

-       Romney’s big win in Massachusetts. This matters marginally more than Gingrich’s big win in GA, but only because Romney may be able to spin it into a larger narrative of winning most states on Super Tuesday.

-       Romney’s big win in VA. He’s the only major candidate on the ballot.

-       The media touting any more Anti-Romneys. We’re officially out of new possibilities, and I can’t see Ron Paul getting a run at as the “not Romney” candidate, nor can I see Gingrich getting a third run at the top of the ticket.

-       Same goes for the pundits’ dream of a brokered convention. The field is set, and it looks like Santorum will be the last stand for the anti-Romney crowd.

That’s about all. I’ll be back Thursday with my report card on how the candidates did.