Virginia Governor's Race 2017: Gillespie Has Big Lead, Dems A Toss-Up Say Polls

RICHMOND, VA — Barring an out-of-the-blue surge by Republican gubernatorial opponents Corey Stewart and Frank Wagner over the next two weeks, former Republican National Committee chief Ed Gillespie will be the GOP nominee following the June 13 primary, say the latest polls. He has a robust double-digit lead in all recent polling, leaving his staff to begin looking ahead to the actual general election against. . .who, exactly?

Before one-term Congressman Tom Perriello entered the Democratic fray in January, it wasn't really a fray. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam clearly had the wind at his back and money in the bank. Enter Perriello, who briefly served as an envoy to Africa for former President Barack Obama. Perriello has run an energetic campaign that, despite not having the money Northam does, nonetheless has made him a player. Unlike on the GOP side, this race is something of a toss-up.

(SIGN UP: For more local news, click here to sign up for real-time news alerts. Also, like us on Facebook, and if you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

All of which brings us to the most recent polling. Here are some numbers provided by RealClear Politics:

On the Republican side, Gillespie has a 20-point lead in the most recent Washington Post poll, released May 15. Gillespie garners 38 percent, compared to the 18 of Stewart and the 15 of Wagner. An April 11 Quinnipiac poll had Gillespie at 28 percent, Stewart at 12 and Wagner at 7 — with 51 percent undecided.

On the Democratic side, Perriello has a 2-point lead in the most recent Washington Post poll, released May 18. He was the favored candidate by 40 percent of those who participated, with Northam right there at 38 percent. In the April 11 Quinnipiac poll, Perriello stood at 25 percent to Northam's 20 — again, with 51 percent undecided.

But here's on thing that surely troubles the Gillespie camp: According to a Washington Post poll released May 22, both of the Democratic candidates have double-digit leads in a general election campaign. Perriello beats Gillespie 50-37, and Northam beats him 49-38.

In an off-year gubernatorial election that always attracts national attention because of just that, the stakes are a bit higher this year because of the incumbent president, Donald J. Trump. Remember, Virginia went with Hillary Clinton over Trump last year.

A Rasmussen Reports national poll released June 1 shows Trump's approval rating at 43 percent, with 57 percent disapproving. Four years ago, President Obama (who won Virginia twice) campaigned for now-Gov. Terry McAuliffe, as did Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. The question in the general election is whether Gillespie would welcome Trump's presence on his behalf.

So in a Democratic race that literally is shaping up as too close to call, who will get the nomination and inherit a lead over the GOP opponent? Here's what veteran Virginia political reporter Jeff Schapiro of the Richmond Times-Dispatch recently wrote about the race.

"It is Northam’s cash advantage that Perriello fears. It could blunt what Perriello believes is his advantage: passion. . .Money matters because if the Democratic primary unfolds as primaries often do — with voters tuning in at the last minute — Northam could be in a stronger position to fully introduce himself to a mid-June electorate.

"Plus, Northam has been talking to voters on a regional and statewide basis since entering politics in 2007, when he was elected to the Virginia Senate."

Either way, Gillespie will begin the general election from behind.

Image via Shutterstock