Timing Shifts For Severe Storms Targeting NoVA: See Latest Forecast

A strong frontal system will bring heavy rain and severe weather to Northern Virginia earlier than anticipated on Thursday, with damaging winds and large hail likely to be the primary threats.

According to the National Weather Service, some rain showers will bring much-needed precipitation to parts of the region throughout the morning. Most of these showers have occurred or are expected to occur across the northern half of the Alleghenies, western and central Maryland and northwestern Virginia.

As the front drags across the state, temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid-90s east of the Blue Ridge. Heat index values could exceed 100 degrees.

The heat, combined with the effects of increasing humidity and wind shear, could spawn strong-to-severe thunderstorms across most of the Baltimore region Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.

"Timing of strong to severe thunderstorms seems more probable late morning to mid-afternoon in the northwest and north-central areas (of the forecast region), while the afternoon hours seem more legitimate farther east and southeast into the metros and northern half of Virginia," forecasters with the NWS Baltimore/Washington Office wrote. "The southeastern zones, including southern Maryland, would be more probable later this afternoon and early evening."

The main threats from the storms will be damaging wind gusts over 55 mph and large hail. Lightning may also become a big factor with the strongest thunderstorms.

After a mainly quiet weekend across the region, there is an
increasing chance of unsettled weather returning late Sunday into Monday.

As a result, showers and thunderstorms are back in the forecast, mainly during the overnight hours Sunday and continuing into Monday.

Here's a look at the detailed forecast for Northern Virginia:

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 67. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a slight chance of showers between 8am and 11am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 84. Northwest wind 5 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 20%.