Schrier Vs. Rossi: New Polls Have Good, Bad News For Both

ISSAQUAH, WA – Two polls, two very different opinions about the 8th Congressional District race between Republican Dino Rossi and Democrat Kim Schrier.

Wednesday morning, an AARP poll of voters over age 50 had Schrier up eight points over Rossi, 45 percent to 37 percent. On Wednesday afternoon, a new Crosscut/Elway poll showed Rossi with a 10-point lead, 49 to 39 percent. Both polls showed about 12 percent of voters are still undecided.

The polls differ in methodology and timing. AARP surveyed 616 residents across the 8th Sept. 7 to 19. Crosscut polled 400 registered voters Oct. 4 to 9, right in the middle of the political battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The Crosscut poll also diced the numbers in different ways, for example separating opinions by gender before, during, and after the Kavanaugh confirmation.

The results of the Crosscut poll are a surprise. Hillary Clinton won the 8th in the 2016 presidential election, and national polls are showing big leads for Democrats in Congressional races. A CNN poll out Wednesday found that 54 percent of likely U.S. voters would vote for a Democrat in the upcoming election.

Two weeks ago, a New York Times poll showed Rossi and Schrier basically even - Schrier at 46 percent, Rossi at 45 percent. But that poll surveyed voters of all age groups. Older voters are seen as more likely to vote in the midterm election.

“With less than 30 days to go before Election Day, candidates would be wise to listen to the state’s most powerful voting group: 50-plus voters,” AARP State Director Doug Shadel said in a press release. “History shows older voters turn out in force and AARP wants to ensure issues of particular importance to older voters are front and center – issues like Medicare, Social Security, prescription drug costs, and family caregiving.”

Rossi and Schrier will meet for the one and only WA-8 debate on Sept. 17 at Central Washington University in Ellensburg. The debate will also be broadcast on Puget Sound-area TV stations.

Image courtesy Kim Schrier