Pacific Ocean 'Blob' Gone: What That Means For Winter Weather

SEATTLE, WA - The "blob" of warm water in the northeast Pacific Ocean is gone, according to University of Washington meteorologist Cliff Mass. The blob has somewhat of an influence over winter weather in Puget Sound, and perhaps across North America.

A weak form of the blob was detected in the Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska in October. The blob formed due to high pressure over the ocean, allowing the water to warm up to 3 degrees Celsius. But recent storms in that area have effectively killed the blob, according to Mass.

"The blob forms with persistent high pressure that is associated with weaker winds. Weak winds do not mix the upper ocean as much as strong wind, thus bringing up less cool water from below. Persistent low pressure, with higher winds, are good at mixing, thus reducing water temperatures," Mass wrote on his blog.

What does that mean for winter weather across North America?

When in effect, the blob helps push the jet stream north, influencing warm, dry winters across the West. But that means the jet stream can drop more drastically across the Midwest and East, sometimes helping to create the dreaded polar vortex.

However, the blob's influence on winter weather outside the West is in debate. NOAA Climate Prediction Center deputy director Mike Halpert told Live Science in October that the blob only influences weather a few hundred miles inland from the Pacific Coast.

A much bigger factor for winter weather over the next few months, according to Halpert: El Niño. That phenomenon is similar to the blob in that warmer water in the Pacific Ocean pushes cold air north. There is a 90 percent chance of an El Niño winter, according to NOAA, and a 60 percent chance of an El Niño spring.

In western states, El Niño can mean a warmer winter - very bad for skiing and, more importantly, mountain snow pack. The entire southern half of the U.S. could see much wetter conditions.

El Niño still hasn't officially hit yet, according to NOAA, and its exact influence over local weather is still unclear. Whatever happens, this year's El Niño is not expected to be very strong.

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