Election 2018: Speaker Paul Ryan A Heavy Favorite

JANESVILLE, WI — House Speaker Paul Ryan admitted this week that it wasn't a great sign for state Republicans that Democrats were able to pick up a Republican-held state Senate seat in a special election held in a reliably Republican district.

As for Ryan's election success, however, it appears that he is again a heavy favorite to retain his Wisconsin 1st District Congressional seat for an 11th consecutive term.

In fact, Ryan has never lost an election except as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate in 2012. Ryan has never received less than 54 percent of the vote when he has won, according to ABC News.

In Nov. 2016, Ryan won Wisconsin's U.S. House 1st District handily over Democratic opponent Ryan Solen, garnering 65 percent of the vote to Solen's 30 percent.

How competitive was the race? Despite months of pleas from Solen, Ryan’s campaign said there would end up being no debate before the Nov. 8 election.

According to a Politico article posted in mid-December, Ryan's preference had become clear: He would like to serve through Election Day 2018 and retire ahead of the next Congress. According to Politico, "this would give Ryan a final legislative year to chase his second white whale, entitlement reform, while using his unrivaled fundraising prowess to help protect the House majority—all with the benefit of averting an ugly internecine power struggle during election season."

According to a CNN report later that day, however, Ryan roundly rejected the Politico report's accuracy, saying he "wasn't going anywhere" when questioned on his future plans. Ryan's spokesperson also called the Politico report speculative, referring to Ryan's earlier comment. "This is pure speculation," Ryan spokeswoman AshLee Strong said in a statement. "As the speaker himself said today, he's not going anywhere any time soon."

Timeline of Paul Ryan's political career:

• 2015-Present: Speaker of the House
• 2012: Vice Presidential candidate and running mate with Mitt Romney
• 1999-Present: U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District
• 1995-1997: Legislative Director to Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.)
• 1993-1995: Advisor and speechwriter for Empower America
• 1992: Aide to Sen. Robert Kasten (Wis.)
• 1992: Graduated from Miami University with a B.A.

According to a U.S. News and World Report article published this week, Ryan's campaign said it raised $1.4 million in the final three months of 2017. That means Ryan has $9.7 million in the bank heading into his 2018 fall election at this point.

The report also stated that his Democratic opponent Randy Bryce, a union ironworker, raised $1.2 million in the final quarter of 2017. Another potential opponent, Cathy Myers, a Janesville school board member raised nearly $183,000 and had $107,000 cash on hand.

Paul Ryan: In-State vs. Out-of-State Contributions (Fall 2017)
In-state $289,886
Out-Of-State $7,650,294

Top 5 Contributors (Fall 2017)

Blackrock Inc $110,800
Blackstone Group $73,710
Affiliated Managers Group $72,800
Goldman Sachs $66,200
New York Life Insurance $61,300

Information gathered from Opensecrets.org

Patch.com Photo by Scott Anderson