Replacing Paul Ryan, And Other Big Wisconsin Election Questions

WISCONSIN -- Voters who go to the polls in Wisconsin on Tuesday, Nov. 6 will have a hand at shaping or upsetting the political balance both at home and on the national level. Among the choices Wisconsin voters will have during the fall general election include: who replaces Paul Ryan in Wisconsin's First Congressional District; will Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin be able to hang on to her seat against Republican challenger Leah Vukmir and will Democrat Tony Evers have what it takes to defeat Gov. Scott Walker?

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Who Replaces Paul Ryan in Congress?

Voters in Wisconsin's First Congressional District will have two main choices this November: Republican Bryan Steil, or Democrat Randy Bryce, also known as the Iron 'Stache. Whoever wins this election, they will be filling the shoes of Republican Paul Ryan, a longtime officeholder known for climbing the ranks from a new legislator in 1999 to a Vice-Presidential candidate and later Speaker of the House.

Ryan's announcement that he would not be seeking re-election changed voters' calculus in the district in a dramatic way and opened the door for a Republican newcomer and Democratic perennial candidates to contend for the Congressional seat.

According to election forecasting site 538.com, Steil has a 75 percent chance of winning in November and predicts the Republican newcomer will defeat Bryce by a margin of 50.6 percent to 45.6 percent. On the other hand, the campaign is already shaping up to be a war of jabs, barbs, quips and clips.

The campaign looks to be a competitive one with lots of back-and-forth: "You'd need a Boeing 747 to fit all of the baggage Randy Bryce is carrying into November. The only thing longer than his rap sheet is the number of ridiculously out of touch liberal policies he supports." That's a comment from National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesperson Chris Martin.

Meanwhile, the Bryce campaign had this to say: "Lyin' Bryan pretends to care about working people, but his support of tax cuts for the wealthy -- paid for by cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security -- proves he has no idea what people in this district need. I do understand--I know what it's like to fall on hard times. Bottom line-- we need to build a bigger table for everyone. And I will work every day for the next three months to make sure the people in this district get the respect and representation they deserve."

Steil is a self-styled conservative problem-solver who says he will employ his experience to fight for legislation that brings high-wage jobs to Wisconsin in addition to making sure that education is affordable.

"I am a conservative problem solver. I have worked for Rock County manufacturers for the last nine years solving problems and moving products in and out of the door every day. I currently serve on the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents, where I voted to maintain a tuition freeze so that students across Wisconsin have access to affordable and high-quality education," he told Patch.com

Bryce, a 53-year-old ironworker from Caledonia, says he champions building a strong middle class while protecting civil rights for all. Bryce believes in Medicare for all, and protecting people who paid into their pensions over their careers.

I believe we need Medicare For All because our current healthcare system does not work for middle-class families. With healthcare tied to employment, families can face sudden loss of care if the head of the household loses their job, doubling their economic crisis. And even when families do have insurance, the industry's for-profit model means families are often faced with inexplicably high drug and test costs. Medicare for All would lower costs for families and businesses by giving the government greater negotiating power with health insurance companies and untying health insurance from employment.

Here are their latest available campaign finance report figures:

Randy Bryce (D)

• Cash Raised $6,240,539
• Cash Spent $4,563,263
• Cash On Hand $1,677,277
• Last Report 07/25/2018

Bryan Steil (R)

• Cash Raised $750,237
• Cash Spent $119,109
• Cash On Hand $631,128
• Last Report 07/25/2018

Does Tony Evers Have A Chance At Beating Scott Walker?

No.

Yes.

Maybe.

It depends on who you ask.

If you believe in what Democrats are saying, then you believe that an anti-Donald Trump wave of voters will go to the polls this November to give Evers a legitimate shot at taking down Wisconsin's Republican Governor. Is the Blue Wave even real? We asked that question earlier this year and received mixed results when we checked.

Election forecasting website 538 says that presidential politics hasn't typically been a major factor in local gubernatorial elections ... but this year it might.

"In total, Democrats have only nine governors’ offices to defend, while Republicans have a daunting 26 — and that’s before factoring in the unfavorable political environment. Presidential politics has less influence on gubernatorial results than it does on Senate and House races, but the connection is growing strong in this era of intense partisanship."

In an Aug. 22 Marquette University Law School poll, among all registered voters, the race for governor remains tight, with Walker at 46 percent, Evers at 44 percent and Libertarian Phil Anderson with 7 percent.

Walker

As Walker gears up his 2018 gubernatorial campaign, Walker has assembled a list of accomplishments - some of which have been largely praised while others seem controversial.

"We've got an incredible organization," Walker said in a Washington Examiner report. "We're strong. We've been battle-tested." And part of that organization translates to dollars and cents. According to an MPR report, "Walker, in his first race since he dropped out of a short-lived bid for president in September 2015, has at least a 2-to-1 advantage in television ad spending since the Aug. 14 primary. Millions more in spending from both the Republican and Democratic national governors associations, among others, is on the way."

First is his passing of a $3 billion incentive package to lure Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn to build and operate a $5 billion electronics plant in Racine County. It's the largest financial package ever doled out to a company, and it's not due to break even for 25 years.

Walker toured the state in December to tout his tax reform policies which eliminated the state portion of the property tax bill — the first year this has happened since 1931.

"Because of the growth we've had in the budget, because of the positive economy, the fact that more people are working than before - all those things put us in a good position. Not only to cover this, but, as I mentioned, to put more dollars in our classrooms than ever before, to make all the other investments we've done this budget,"

In early January, Walker reportedly adopted a major idea from his Democratic opponents to propose $80 million in funding to overhaul the state's youth prison system.

According to the Journal Sentinel, Walker is proposing to break up the Lincoln Hills School for Boys to convert the Northwoods facility into an adult medium-security prison, while shifting teenage inmates to a series of smaller, regional locations. Lincoln Hills was the subject of a wide-ranging federal investigation into excessive force by authorities.

In a statement to Patch.com, Walker says his political accomplishments geared toward working families are the hallmarks of his successes in the Badger State. "Today there are more people working than ever before, property and income taxes will be lower in 2018 than they were in 2010, and we're making historic investments in our classrooms. We've come a long way together in the fight for hard-working families, but there's more to be done and I'm ready to keep moving Wisconsin forward with more bold reform."

"We are 49th out of 50 states in infrastructure," said Wisconsin Gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers

Is Wisconsin's infrastructure in such bad shape? False: https://t.co/geqTB6rSXm pic.twitter.com/FA7uqNsbzB
— PolitiFact Wisconsin (@PolitiFactWisc) September" class="redactor-linkify-object">https://twitter.com/PolitiFact... 2, 2018

Evers

Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction Chair Tony Evers won an eight-way Democratic Primary in August, setting up November's election as a showdown between the architect of Act 10 and the state's de facto education chief. Before becoming superintendent, Evers worked as a teacher, principal, school district administrator, CESA administrator, and deputy state superintendent.

Act 10 is a 2010 bill authored by the governor that sought to severely limit the collective bargaining rights of teachers in public education.

“He has no credibility on the issue,” Evers said of Walker's stance on education in a La Crosse Tribune report earlier this year. “He has cut millions in funding ... just because he was able to play Santa Claus for a year doesn’t give him credibility.”

Will Tammy Baldwin Be Able To Hold On To Her Senate Seat?

If she does, it's going to be close. That's according to a recent Marquette University Law School Poll. Among likely voters in the race for the Wisconsin U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in November, 49 percent support the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 47 percent support Republican Leah Vukmir.

According to Ballotpedia, Vukmir was first elected to the Wisconsin State Senate in 2010, representing District 5. She also served in the Wisconsin State Assembly, representing District 14, from 2003 to 2010.

Wisconsin is considered one of the Senate races to watch in the fall, and is named among the several Senate seats to switch parties in 2018, according to CNN Politics.

Political observers said either of the GOP frontrunners would be a formidable foe for Baldwin because of the support the candidate will receive from national sources. By January, conservative groups had already spent at least $3.1 million against the Democratic senator, which was more than what all the other Democratic Senate incumbents on the ballot this year had faced combined, according to the Huffington Post.

The Washington Post adds that Baldwin is running against one of the best-mobilized state parties in all of politics, which will be trying to get Walker reelected to a third term.

Baldwin issued a statement Tuesday night: "Wisconsinites want someone who will be in their corner and stand up to powerful special interests in Washington, not a bought-and-paid-for senator. Leah Vukmir has a long record of putting her corporate special interest backers ahead of hardworking Wisconsin families, making the choice clear this November."

Republicans currently hold a 51-49 advantage in the U.S. Senate. This year, the GOP looks to pick up more seats as 26 Democratic seats are up for election, compared to just eight Republican seats. What's more, five of the Democratic seats are up for election in states where President Donald Trump won by 18 percent or more.

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