1st Hurricane Of Season Expected To Form In Gulf, Forecasters Say

With a tropical system brewing in the Gulf, see its potential timeline and what this forecast means for AL.

By Tiffany Razzano, Patch Staff

Oct 6, 2026 12:01 PM CDT

With a tropical system brewing in the Gulf, see its potential timeline and what this forecast means for AL. (National Hurricane Center)

A tropical rainstorm in the southwestern Gulf is expected to strengthen into the next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season by the weekend, forecasters said.

The system, Invest 92-L, is likely to become Isaias, the ninth named storm of the season and this year's first hurricane, AccuWeather said. It would also be the latest first hurricane to form in over 100 years.

It's been an unusually quiet season, largely thanks to a strong El Niño climate pattern, which typically increases vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. There have been no hurricanes so far this year.

Invest 92-L, a mass of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, continues to show signs of organizing on Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.

(AccuWeather)

"Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward," NHC forecasters said.

The invest has a 90 percent chance of forming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days, the NHC said.

Within days, the low-pressure area is expected to bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to western parts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the agency said.

By the end of the week, the system is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast, NHC forecasters said.

Though it's too early to determine its exact track or intensity, the agency said those in the Florida Panhandle to the Louisiana coast should watch the system's progress.

The system is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the U.S. Southeast later this week and weekend, AccuWeather said.

Warm Gulf waters with temperatures in the 80s are ripe for supporting tropical development. This should fuel the system, which is expected to overcome any wind shear in its path as it strengthens into a tropical depression or storm, AccuWeather forecasters said. The agency's track shows "the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening."

Steering winds, as well as a jet stream dip, are expected to direct the system northeastward. The invest is forecast to "quickly ramp up to a tropical storm before peaking as a hurricane while over the central Gulf," AccuWeather said.

It will lose wind intensity as it approaches the central Gulf Coast states, forecasters said.

AccuWeather experts think the storm will likely track near the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandles, as well as southeastern Louisiana.

(AccuWeather)

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, agrees with this track, writing in a Tuesday morning social media post, "I continue to think this ends up between New Orleans and Pensacola. Could it change? Sure. Will it change? I doubt it. Timeline? Friday-Sunday."

The system's "intensity is much trickier" to tell at this point, Phillips added. "Many models keep this a tropical storm but a few strengthen it into a hurricane. I think there's a window where it will get stronger before shear sets in."

Wind shear will be the biggest factor in the potential tropical storm's development, meteorologist Noah Bergren with Fox 35 wrote in a social media post.

He wrote, "Wind shear is the big story for Isaias. Despite record warm waters, it has a narrow window to strengthen in the southern Gulf. Any rapid, steady, or notable intensification and organizing must happen by Thursday midday before it hits hostile wind shear up north."

Bergren believes the system will most likely make landfall in Mississippi or Alabama.

"Most models bring this into the MS/AL area. Some outliers into the western Florida Panhandle or western Louisiana," he wrote. "Bottom line; I expect an impactful tropical storm coming in Friday or Saturday for a landfall. Remnant moisture into the Deep South this weekend. Lots of rain, some wind, and a few tornadoes in outer rain bands possible. Central Florida, Tampa to Orlando has for right now zero concern or impact form this system the way it stands."