Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Make History After Remarkably Quiet Start

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, has reached its climatological peak — Sept. 10 — without a single hurricane forming.

This year is on the verge of hitting a new record if no hurricane forms by Saturday, AccuWeather forecasters said.

“If no hurricane forms by Sept. 12, it will mark the latest date without a hurricane in the satellite era, which began in 1966,” AccuWeather said.

The latest occurrences of a first hurricane happened in the 2002 and 2013 seasons on Sept. 11, when Gustav and Humberto formed on that date in those years, respectively.

All is quiet in the Atlantic basin on Friday morning, with no tropical cyclone activity expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Thursday, there have been five tropical storms recorded so far this year in the Atlantic basin. The most recent, Edouard, formed in the western Gulf at the end of August, and made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 1.

Prior to the introduction of satellite storm tracking in 1966, an unnamed storm reached hurricane strength as the first of the 1941 season on Sept. 21, AccuWeather said. If no hurricanes form this year before Sept. 22, this 2026 season will also break that record.

“There have been two hurricane seasons that ended up with no hurricanes on record, 1907 and 1914,” Fox 13 meteorologist Paul Dellegatto wrote in a social media post. “However, those seasons occurred long before satellites monitored the oceans, meaning several open-sea hurricanes likely went undetected by ships. Since satellite tracking began, the quietest seasons on record produced two hurricanes, 1982 and 2013. The way things are going, that record is also in jeopardy!”

By August, forecasters began lowering their predictions for the 2026 hurricane season.

As of Aug. 19, the AccuWeather team now expects eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes this year.

Their original March forecast called for 11 to 16 named storms. The private forecasting service continues to expect three to five storms to have a direct impact on the United States.

Earlier in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also lowered its seasonal forecast, reducing its expectations to seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. The agency also increased the probability of a below-normal season from 55 percent in its May outlook to 75 percent.

forecasts point to El Niño as a major reason for the expected slowdown.

The climate pattern develops in the Pacific but can influence weather patterns around the globe. In the Atlantic, El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.

At the same time, a 3,000-mile cloud of Saharan dust is heading toward Florida and the Gulf, rare for this time of year, and should reach the Sunshine State by early next week, News 6 forecasters said.

“We are inching toward the peak of hurricane season and we are still talking about massive amounts of dust helping, thankfully, to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, due in part to El Niño; it’s kind of a tag team event,” the News 6 team said.

Fox 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren said the lack of hurricanes so far this season have led to hotter-than-normal water temperatures.

Water surface temperatures are at record highs around Florida and the Gulf, he wrote in a social media post. “A notable lack of hurricane and tropical activity has helped to fuel this. Also it has been a top-10 hottest summer on record around Florida this year.”

This could mean one of two things, Bergren said.

“[One,] if an October tropical system forms off a cold front that drops south, ample fuel sits untapped for a possible ‘close to home’ forming system,” he wrote in his post. “[Two,] if no notable tropical systems form, and this anomaly holds into fall, this combined with the expected strong jet stream over Florida from El Niño could really enhance fall/winter severe storm and tornado setups around Orlando, Tampa, and Miami.”

Bergren added, “A much warmer than average Gulf helps to keep instability up for thunderstorm risks in the winter-time on the Florida Peninsula.”

See Also:

• Forecasters Continue To Lower Hurricane Season Predictions As Peak Season Nears
• NOAA Lowers 2026 Hurricane Forecast As Peak Season Nears
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season