Officials: AZ May Reach Coronavirus Peak In May, June

PHOENIX, AZ—Arizona may not hit its peak of coronavirus cases until May or June, according to Dr. Cara Christ with the Arizona Department of Health Services.

In an ADHS blog post, she said Wednesday that early models projected the state would reach its peak between the middle to end of April. However, she said those projections were based on very limited experience and data from Chinese counterparts in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China.

As more information about the virus has come out, Christ said additional models have become available online. The two most prominent are found at healthdata.org and COVIDActNow.org.

Early in the response, these models were predicting peak resource use around April 20, with 5,342 inpatient beds, 787 ICU beds, and 436 ventilators needed.

"As of April 22, this model forecasts that Arizona has already passed our peak of resource utilization and only requires 424 inpatient beds, 103 ICU beds, and 92 ventilators," Christ said in her blog post. "This is well under our available resources and current hospital capacity."

Over the past several weeks, she said ADHS has partnered with experts from Arizona State University and the University of Arizona to develop a more targeted, Arizona-specific model, which shows a peak around May 22. During this time, it's estimated the state would need 600 hospital beds and 300 ICU beds.

However, a separate model for the state created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) show a peak around June 11.

"As you can see, the model projections vary widely and are highly sensitive to our mitigation strategies," she said. "All of our efforts to date have decreased the transmission of COVID-19 in our community and helped our healthcare system increase resource capacity to meet Arizona’s healthcare needs."

The federal model appears to be the most realistic, Christ said.

While most of the models show that Arizona currently has the capacity to meet the healthcare demands for Arizona, Christ said is the responsibility of public health to plan for the worst-case scenario.