Phoenix Heat Is Back, With A Stormy Catch Before The Weekend

PHOENIX, AZ — Phoenix's mild weather has an expiration date. Warmth returns Tuesday, a storm system could shake things up by Thursday, and 90-degree heat is expected to close out the week, according to the National Weather Service.

The first half of the week is about as calm as it gets. Expect sunny skies and comfortable highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, warming into the mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday.

Some high clouds will start creeping in Wednesday as moisture nudges northward into southeastern Arizona, the first hint that something's brewing.

Thursday is the most uncertain day of the forecast. Whether much happens depends on how close a Pacific system tracks to southern Arizona, and forecasters say the models still aren't in agreement on the storm's strength, timing or path.

Showers could arrive Thursday morning from Phoenix eastward, though dry air near the surface will likely keep early rainfall limited. The better chance for rain and isolated thunderstorms comes in the afternoon and evening as moisture increases. Any storms that develop could bring gusty winds and blowing dust, and some models suggest localized rainfall totals could reach a half-inch or more in spots.

Don't cancel your plans just yet, though. Rain chances are still relatively modest, ranging from 10 to 20 percent across the western lower deserts to 25 to 40 percent over south-central Arizona. The weather service hasn't pinpointed which communities face the highest risk.

If Thursday fizzles, the wait for heat won't be long. Temperatures rebound quickly once that system clears out, with the low to mid 90s expected by Saturday and 90s continuing into Sunday.

Summer is still coming, just maybe with a brief detour first.