On The Prep Beat: Assessing Area Teams' Playoff Chances

With the regular season over, here's a look at the playoff chances of the teams that have qualified and a season post-mortem for the squads that didn't.

Division II

Pinole Valley — No. 2 seed — 9-0-1

As the only undefeated team in Division II, the Spartans certainly rank among the title contenders. They begin the playoffs Saturday at 7 p.m. at home against another ACCAL team, Alameda (4-6). just four weeks ago, and there's no reason to believe they won't cruise again. If the seeds held, their next game would be at home against Washington (5-5), a team that struggled against a brutal early-season schedule and then lost out on the Mission Valley Athletic League with a . In the semifinals, the Spartans could get a rematch with Rancho Cotate (9-1), a team they beat 23-21 on Sept. 10. If PV makes the finals, its likeliest opponent would be top-seeded Concord (9-1), which has scored 46 or more points in each of its last five games, topping 70 twice, including a 78-12 thrashing of No. 5 seed Northgate.

Prediction: Lose to Concord in finals.

Alameda — No. 15 seed — 4-6

After the Hornets lost their opportunity for a quality win last week against El Cerrito, it's a bit of a surprise that they made the field. The fact that they got in is a testament to the team's resiliency, as they've weathered season-ending injury after season-ending injury on their way to a 4-6 record. It's unlikely that this injury-depleted squad can get past Pinole Valley (9-0-1) in the first round.

Prediction: Eliminated by Pinole Valley in first round

Division III

Encinal — No. 4 seed — 9-1

Like in most years, the Jets are among the championship contenders in Division III. Penalties and mistakes have plagued Encinal at times this season, but when that defense is attacking and the option game is clicking, the Jets are good enough to beat anybody in the bracket. They get traditional Marin County power Novato in the first round, but the Hornets (5-5) are down this year and aren't likely to pose much of a threat. Eureka (6-2), champions of the Humboldt-Del Norte Big 3 league, or Petaluma (4-6) would await in the second round. Either opponent would be an underdog against Encinal. The semifinals, however, would be a different story. The Jets would likely have to travel to Kentfield to play Marin Catholic, which beat them 27-0 in the NCS finals last season. Marin Catholic has allowed opponents to score 55 points all season. In their last game, the Wildcats scored 60.

Prediction: Eliminated by Marin Catholic in semifinals.

Division IV

St. Mary's — No. 10 seed — 5-5

The Panthers have to travel 259 miles north to take on Ferndale, winners of the Humboldt-Del Norte Little 4 league. The teams shared one regular season opponent: Swett, which Ferndale beat 66-21 in September and St. Mary's defeated 50-15 last week. St. Mary's finished the regular season strong and has proven itself to be quite capable of making a playoff run, but fatigue and lack of depth could be a factor, since the Panthers have to travel so far.

Prediction: Eliminated by Ferndale in first round.

Now let's quickly look back on the seasons of area teams who either did not qualify or were not selected for the playoffs.

El Cerrito (5-5)

I must admit I'm a little shocked the Gauchos didn't get selected for the Division III playoffs. They qualified several weeks ago, and they appeared to lock up a spot with a win over Division II playoff team Alameda in the final games of the season. They were certainly one of the last teams left out of the field, and in the end, I'd guess that Week 1 loss to Kennedy-Richmond may have been what kept them on the wrong side of the bubble. Otherwise, El Cerrito did what it needed to do — losses to perennial powers Encinal, Campolindo, Pinole Valley and Berkeley, and wins over everyone else on their schedule.

Hercules (5-5)

Another ACCAL team that qualified for the Division III playoffs but wasn't selected, the Titans were victimized by their weak schedule. They beat up on cupcakes and lost every game they played against quality competition. In any year, finishing with a 2-4 record in the middle-of-the-road ACCAL will do little to inspire confidence among those deciding the playoff field.

Piedmont (2-8)

It was a brutal year for the Highlanders, who slipped into the bottom half of the BSAL one year after qualifying for the playoffs. Piedmont's two wins came in back-to-back September games against Albany and Swett. In its eight other games, Piedmont was outscored 296-97.

Albany (1-9)

It was a dreadful season for the Cougars, who finished the year without a win in the BSAL. Albany started the year with promise, hanging tough against Campolindo in Week 1 and holding a second half lead against Vallejo in Week 2. But after a 45-15 Week 3 win over St. Elizabeth, everything unraveled. They blew chances to beat Swett and Piedmont — probably the only BSAL teams the Cougars could realistically defeat — and were blown out in each of their remaining games.