A Closer Look at Crime in Lake Forest

We’ve been looking at the fact that our crime rate in Lake Forest is the highest among our neighbors. Click Here to read the last article in which we found -

• · RSM, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, and Mission Viejo consistently have lower crime rates than we do whether we are looking at Part 1 or Part 2 crimes.
• · Our crime rate is nearly double that of RSM and 63% higher than Aliso Viejo.
• · Even though Mission Viejo has significantly more people than Lake Forest, their crime rate is lower. Usually larger cities have higher crime rates.

Here are some possible explanations

Invaders from the North – Councilman Robinson believes that the high crime people who live in North County come south to commit crimes, and since Lake Forest is the first City in South County, they are more likely to commit their crimes here. That’s not an unreasonable theory, but the fact that Irvine has a low crime rate for a City of its size, and Irvine precedes Lake Forest on the march south, speaks against the theory. In addition, crime rate does not go down as you get further away (e.g., Aliso Viejo has a lower crime rate than Laguna Niguel). It’s not a bad theory but it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

Access to the Freeway – Councilman Robinson also thinks that criminals are looking for a fast exit so closeness to the freeway helps increase our crime rate. That’s not a bad theory either until you look at a map. Mission Viejo has much greater freeway exposure than Lake Forest, yet it has a lower crime rate. Aliso Viejo is relatively far from the 5 freeway, but the 73 freeway is right there, giving criminals an even greater ability to reach a freeway for a quick exit. Also bear in mind that most of Lake Forest is miles away from the 5, whereas most of Aliso Viejo is within a few minutes of the 73.

Economics – It’s well known that poorer communities have higher crime rates, so the economic differences in Lake Forest can be examined. Our per capita income is $39,844 which is higher than Laguna Woods ($36,017) and about the same as Mission Viejo ($41,436) and RSM ($41,787), so the answer won’t be found here either.

Race – Compared to our 6 neighbors, Lake Forest tends to have fewer Whites (57% vs. 69%), more Hispanics (25% vs. 16%), and more Asians (13% vs 11%). This diversity may hint at why the crime rate is higher, but when you look more closely it is less apparent. RSM has the second highest percent of Hispanics yet their crime rate is consistently the lowest. Aliso Viejo has the second lowest percent of Whites (62%) yet it also has consistently low crime rate. So if race does play a factor it is a subtle one.

Spending – Some people believe that we need to spend more to get better service. We can look at the per capita spending for our neighbors. The average per capita spending is $176.06. That’s $63,170,839 spent for the 358,810 people living in the 6 cities. Among our immediate neighbors we are spending the second highest on a per capita basis - $182.11. Only MV spends more ($188.79). The other 4 cities (RSM, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, and Laguna Woods) spend less yet they have lower crime rates. These 4 cities range in per capita costs from $154.43 (Aliso Viejo) to $173.55 (RSM). Thus ...

• · RSM spends 5% less than we do (on a per capita basis) yet their crime rate is nearly half of ours.
• · Aliso Viejo spends 18% less than we do yet their crime rate is 63% lower than ours.

So we are not going to find our answer in how much we spend.

Next time we’ll look elsewhere to see why Lake Forest consistently has more crime than any of our neighbors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on August 13 at 2 pm at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.