Is the County "Cooking the Books"?

A few months ago I reported on the incorrect figures given by the Orange County Sheriff’s Department (OCSD) when they were asked during a Lake Forest Council meeting in June 2015 to give us the per capita costs of their service in Lake Forest compared to the per capita costs in the City of Irvine (Click here for the full story). Lake Forest contracts with OCSD but Irvine employs their own Police Department which consistently has the lowest crime rate among the 400+ largest cities in the U.S. The OCSD representative told us that the costs were $170 for Lake Forest and $325 for Irvine. I knew right away these figures were wrong. My own estimates, based on the latest population and budget figures, indicated the costs were about $191 and $275. But rather than get into a pissing match with the Police (never a good idea), I asked the City Manager to do some homework, and after an extensive analysis he came back and reported $189 (Lake Forest) and $298 (Irvine).

So OCSD under-estimated the costs to Lake Forest by 11% and over-estimated Irvine’s costs by 18%. By their estimates Irvine was spending 91% more while in reality it was only 58% more. My own estimates were much closer in both cases, and I didn’t have the benefit of the large binder and the OCSD staff to do the figures.

What disturbed me most about the OCSD figures were not that they were wrong, or even that they were so wrong, but that the direction of the errors was such that it put OCSD in a more favorable light. Councilman Robinson and the OCSD used these figures to make a false argument that it was a waste of time for the City of Lake Forest to explore alternatives to the current Police contract that recently was increased by a whopping $900,000.

More recently, I attended a September meeting of the Orange County Board of Supervisors in which the Board President, Supervisor Todd Spitzer, asked the newly appointed head of the Orange County Animal Care Services (OCAC), to report on the euthanasia rate. Dr. Hawkins quickly answered that the euthanasia rate for dogs so far in 2015 was less than 6%.

“Less than 6%”?!

I knew intuitively that the figure was wrong. The kill rate for dogs in the OC shelter has generally been between 20% and 30%, so how could it have suddenly dropped to “less than 6%”?

As I thought about it more, I realized that Dr. Hawkins had pulled a switcheroo. Asked what the euthanasia rate was, she answered with the euthanasia rate for dogs, not the general rate. Historically the kill rate for dogs is far lower than the kill rate for cats and other animals. For example, from 2012 to 2014 a total of 82,880 live animals were admitted to the OC shelter for whom outcomes were determined – 36,738 were euthanized. That’s a rate of 44% over the past 3 years for all the animals. This is the answer I assume Supervisor Spitzer was looking for.

So by giving the answer for DOGS ONLY, Dr. Hawkins was significantly discounting the nature of the problem. A euthanasia rate of less than 6% is nothing to be worried about. In contrast, a euthanasia rate of 40% is a real concern. Had she wanted to be completely honest, but to put a positive spin on the numbers, she could have accurately reported that the euthanasia rate has been declining, and only a decade ago it was in excess of 50%. But using the numbers for dogs only was not the answer Supervisor Spitzer was looking for.

But let’s get back to her answer. It wasn’t the answer Supervisor Spitzer was looking for, but was it even correct?

According to Dr. Hawkins the euthanasia rate for dogs in 2014 was 9.6%. According to my calculations it was 23%. That’s a heck of a difference. To see how we arrive at our very different figures, tune in tomorrow.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on Dec 12 at 2 pm at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.

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