Crime and Alcohol in Lake Forest. Part 5 - Future Opportunities

We’re examining the request from a discount chain to sell beer and wine in two of their stores in Lake Forest.

In Part 1 of this series we reported that –

• Lake Forest has 159 total outlets selling alcohol, and among the 12 cities in South Orange County, we have the 5th highest concentration with 1 outlet for every 496 people.

• Of the 16 census tracts in Lake Forest, 5 are oversaturated, 4 are at their limit, 2 are below their limits, and 5 are zoned exclusively residential and do not permit commercial stores

In Part 2 we reported that –

• A majority of criminal offenders were under the influence of alcohol alone when they committed their crimes. This amounts to more than 3,000,000 violent crimes per year.

• For 40% of convicted murderers being held in either jail or State prison, alcohol use was a factor in the homicide.

In Part 3 we found that

• Throughout the U.S. research for the past 30 years demonstrates that as the number of outlets goes up, serious crime and DUI arrests go up.

• Right here in Orange County, for 2013, we found that as the number of outlets goes up, serious crime and DUI arrests go up.

 In Part 4 we looked at the claims of the consultant and we found that

•  The company does not need to sell beer and wine to remain competitive.

• One-stop shopping is not a major consideration for the vast majority of Lake Forest residents and if it were, it could be accommodated better at several other stores (e.g., WalMart, Target, Smart and Final).

• Decisions made for 99 Cents Store do not set a precedent for any other retailer.

Today we want to look at some concluding issues.

MORATORIUM

In addition to the measurement of oversaturation, the ABC has an absolute quota for cities. For Lake Forrest, the absolute number of Type 20 (sell beer and wine off site) licenses is 31 and we currently have 22. That means for the foreseeable future, we have only 9 more licenses that can be given to the City.

If 99 Cents Stores gets 2 of the remaining 9 licenses, you can be sure they will request a third license for the third store they just opened up, and the rationale will be the same unfounded rationale they are using now. That means a third of our remaining licenses will go to a chain of stores that

• Are already in the City

• Are Making money in the City without having to sell beer and wine

• Do not need to sell beer and wine to remain competitive

• Are located in oversaturated areas where there are a dozen other stores that already have Type 20 licenses

If the Planning Commission approves these licenses we will get more crime and more DUI arrests and no off-setting benefits.

LESS OPPORTUNITY

Using 2 or 3 of the remaining 9 licenses means limiting the possibilities going forward. Here are some of the opportunities we may miss –

• New Businesses With Unique Offerings - There are existing businesses not already in Lake Forest who might wish to come to the City in the future. For example, stores like Trader Joe’s and Mother’s Market would offer something unique to the City that is not currently being offered.

• New Businesses Closer to the New Homes –There are 5,000 new homes being built in the City, and these stores have additional commercial space in close proximity. Why spend our few remaining licenses on stores that are not close to these new homes?

• New Businesses Catering to Ethnic Groups – Almost all of the beer and wine offerings in the City are middle of the road. We may have future businesses that wish to cater to specific ethnic groups with large inventories of types of beer and wine that are not otherwise available.

• Tracts that are not Oversaturated – For whatever the reason, there are 2 tracts that are below their limits and 4 tracts that are at their limits. New licenses to businesses in these tracts should take precedence over tracts that are already over-saturated.

Tomorrow we’ll summarize.