The Homeless Chronicles. Part 2

This is the second in a multi-part series about homelessness. Last time we noted that

• Homelessness changes depending on your definition, from very narrow to very broad.
• There are three main groups of homeless people – (1) people who chose to be homeless, (2) people whose disabilities create/contribute to homelessness, and (3) people who experience a major negative event which propels them into homelessness.
• The life style homeless basically want to be left alone. The temporary homeless are looking for help to return them to their normal life. The chronic homeless have such disabling conditions they are the most difficult to reach and to help.
• In recent years, a greater percent of the homeless are coming from the temporary group, fueled largely by the high cost of housing in relationship to their income.

Today we’ll look at the numbers.

How Many Homeless Are There?

Last time we noted that the number of homeless people is dependent on your definition. The federal government uses a very narrow definition and so their numbers are the most conservative estimate and are certainly an under-reporting of the true number. In addition to the definition issue of homelessness, the methodological issues involved in the federal census mean that their numbers are even more flawed. Yet these figures are the figures relied upon by federal, state, and local agencies to do their planning. That being said, let’s see what they report.

The 2018 nationwide survey reports over 550,000 homeless people in the U.S. including all states and territories. Among these, 194,000 are unsheltered, 275,000 are in “emergency shelters” and 82,000 are in “transitional housing”. Of these, 60% are males and 49% are white. Homeless households with children under the age of 18 are 19% of the total. Households without any children are 67%. In terms of disabilities, the major issues are “severe mental illness” (20%), “chronic substance abuse” (16%), and HIV/AIDS (2%). 7% are veterans and 9% are victims of domestic abuse.

We can get a better picture of how many people are homeless if we broaden the definition of homelessness. Take for example, two estimates of the homeless in California. HUD reports a total of 129,972 homeless people in California while the US Department of Education survey of California found 246,296 public school students considered homeless. Here’s the breakdown -

• 211,607 “doubled up”
• 17,061 in shelters
• 10,095 in hotels/motels
• 7,533 on the streets
• 7,495 “unaccompanied homeless students”

The figures for homeless children alone are more than twice as high as the HUD figures for the total number of homeless.

Differences between HUD counts and independent counts are commonplace. This year, the HUD survey in San Francisco County reported 3,124 homeless mentally ill people among the population. At the same time, San Francisco public health officials reported serving twice as many people as those counted in the HUD survey. In Los Angeles, it’s the same picture. The statistics from the HUD survey reported 29% of the total homeless were mentally ill and/or substance abusers, but an independent report by the Los Angeles Times found the true number to be 67%. Orange County is no different. The County’s HUD figure reported about 6,000 homeless people while Cal Optima reported 10,000.

Almost every study ever done shows that HUD figures under-count the homeless by at least 50% and sometimes by as high as 200%. Looking at California, the HUD survey reports

• 129,972 individuals (552,830 nationwide)
• 67% male (60% nationwide)
• 56% white (49% nationwide)
• 25% households without children (67% nationwide)
• 25% “severe mental illness” (20% nationwide)
• 17% “chronic substance abuse” (16% nationwide)

Summary

We can probably double the HUD figures without worrying too much about over-estimating the numbers. That means that nationwide there are more than a million homeless people and in California the number is close to 250,000. In Orange County the number of homeless is between 10,000 and 15,000, not the 6,800 figure produced by the County.

Next time we’ll take a brief look at why the federal figures are so misleading.

About the Author

Dr. Jim Gardner is the former Mayor of Lake Forest. A Clinical Psychologist, he is a former University Professor and Department Head. He authored several reports about homelessness.