Nakase Notes

The Toll Brothers, a real estate company, has a particular affinity for Lake Forest. They have hundreds of homes built or now being built in the City. Their latest foray was at Parkside (across the street from the Sports Park) where they have 3 different models with starting price tags of $884,995, $969,995 or $1,029,995. Down the block they have several models in Baker Ranch, with starting prices even higher.

Toll Brothers’ reach extends far beyond our City. They are active in 50 markets and 19 states across the United States, a publically traded company (TOL) with more than 100 subsidiaries, 200 LLCs and more than 200 active partnerships. In gross revenues they are usually among the top 5 home builders. In 2015 they reported $928 million in cash, revenue of $4.17 billion, and income of $535 million before taxes. By their own admission, they are “America’s Luxury Home Builder”.

Toll Brothers wants to make Lake Forest an even more luxurious choice by replacing the 122 acre Nakase Property (between Lake Forest Drive and Bake Pkwy, just in front of Home Depot) with hundreds of new luxury homes. They’ve held a series of public meetings and have been gathering public opinion through phone calls.

They’re having 3 more public meetings, all of them at the Baker Ranch Grove Clubhouse.

• Wed, May 24, 6:45 pm
• Thurs, May 25, 9:00 am
• Thurs, May 25, 6:45 pm

I’ve been asked to comment but as an elected official I can’t comment except under certain limited circumstances and only about certain limited aspects of the project. People have responded by saying “What questions should we ask?” So here’s a list of the questions I’d like to ask if or when the proposed project moves closer to reality.

GENERAL

• What is the approximate value of the land if Nakase sells it with the current zoning and how much more is it worth if they sell it to Toll Brothers to be zoned residential?
• What is your approximate timetable? Develop plans? Public hearings? Submit plans to Planning Commission? Start construction? Occupy school? Occupy first phase of homes. Final phase complete?
• What is the minimum number of homes you need to build in order to decide to go ahead with this project?
• How much do you anticipate paying in fees to the City?
• To the extent that you can forecast it, what populations do you plan to target in what proportions? (e.g., families with young children, seniors, young adults).
• To the extent that you can forecast it, what proportion of your buyers will come from Lake Forest and what proportion will come from other areas? (e.g., Irvine, Overseas)
• Looking at the needs of Lake Forest, why does Toll Brothers believe that our City needs luxury homes instead of affordable homes, senior citizen housing, entry-level homes for young families, units designed for working adults, etc.

TRAFFIC

(Pictured above is current traffic on Bake Pkwy)

• Right now there appears to be very very little traffic coming or going from Nakase. If you build 800 new homes (for example), how much extra traffic will come into the area (Note: usual estimates are 8 trips per day, so 8 x 800 = 6400 extra vehicles trips in that small area).
• Many people believe the City already suffers from too much traffic. What will you do to mitigate the additional traffic produced by this development? Are there new streets to be built? Streets that can be widened? Lanes added?
• The City approved nearly 5,000 new homes within 1 mile of your proposed location. Right now about half are occupied and the others are in various stages of being built. But already many people feel the impact of the extra traffic in this area. Who knows what the traffic will be like when the additional 2,000+ homes are built and occupied. How do we assess whether to add even more homes into a situation like this without knowing the impact of what has already been proposed? What measures would you propose?

SCHOOL

• If you build a school in that area, how much additional traffic, on top of the residential traffic, will having a school result in? Right now drop off and pick up school traffic is a major problem for many of our schools.
• Where do you plan to put the entrances/exits? Will these proposed entrances/exits require traffic lights?
• The City has added nearly 5,000 more homes with no new schools. Do you have an agreement with the School district to build a school?
• How many students would the proposed school handle at each grade? Doesn’t each student result in 2 additional car trips per day into and out of the area?
• What will the teaching and support staff comprise? How many extra trips per day does that add to the area?
• What is the schedule for the school being built? Will it be operational before, during, or after construction of the homes?
• If SVUSD (the school district) decides not to build a school, how much will you pay in fees to the school district? What guarantees are there that this money will be spent in Lake Forest?

ENVIRONMENT

• What is the environmental impact on the surrounding area, especially Serrano Creek, as a result of the building?
• We have brown-outs and emergency water regulations now. With problems getting enough electricity and water to the existing homes, how can we accommodate 800 to 900 more homes in addition to the 2,000+ they have yet to be occupied? What alternative power and water generating alternatives do you propose that will create a zero impact on the current grid?
• Will the area have its own dog park?
• Will the area have its own recreational park?

AFFORDABLE HOUSING

• Will you build affordable housing on site? If so, how many and what types of units will they be (senior, veterans, etc).

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on June 10 at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.