New Report Says Lake Forest is Not so Safe

There is a new report out called “The Safest Cities in California 2016”. It lists the 50 safest cities and guess what – Lake Forest isn’t among them. Here are the safest cities among our immediate neighbors. The numbers in parentheses indicate the violent crimes per 100,000 people along with the chances of being a victim of a property crime.

• · Laguna Woods - #3 (24.1, <1%)
• · Irvine - #13 (50.6, 1.5%)
• · RSM - #14 (55.1, 0.65%)
• · Laguna Niguel - #23 (72.8, 1.1%)
• · Mission Viejo - #25 (76.4, 1.2%)
• · Aliso Viejo - #34 (87.8, <1%)
• · Laguna Hills - #37 (93.3, 1.9%)

Seven of our 12 immediate neighbors made the Top 50 list, but not Lake Forest. How can this be? The City Manager, The Police Chief, and Council members like Dwight Robinson and Andy Hamilton are telling us we are one of the safest cities in the U.S., but it turns out we don’t even make the list of the top 50 in California, much less the entire U.S.

For years I have been writing that we are not one of the safest cities in the U.S. and we are not even one of the safest cities in Orange County. This latest study substantiates what I’ve been saying.

How does this happen?

The report used by the City is an abridged study done with only the 400 biggest cities among 20,000+ cities in the U.S., with a cut off at 75,000 people. The study quoted above included all cities in California, no matter how big or small. This is what makes the difference.

Why?

It turns out that, in general, the larger the City, the higher the crime rate, even on a per capita basis. Bigger cities have more crime. That’s a fact. When your cut-off is 75,000 people, and you include the larger cities, the cities with populations slightly above 75,000 will show up as low crime rate cities, almost by definition. Thus, because Lake Forest just slips in above the cut off, it looks like we have a low crime rate. But if you throw out the 75,000 people cut off, our crime rate no longer looks so good.

Thus, we can look good on one measure and not so good on another. Imagine if you had a fuel economy test for cars that weighed over 5000 pounds. The cars who do best will probably be the ones who are just over 5000 pounds. Now imagine if that same car competes in a fuel economy contest with all cars. How likely is it the 5000 pound car will win? Not so likely, because fuel economy and size go together – the greater the size, the more fuel it uses. It’s the same way with crime and city size. Because the cut-off in the study cited by the City is 75,000 people, we look good because we are at the low end of the cut-off. In reality, we don’t look so good when all the other cities are taken into account, as shown in this report.

Looked at another way, if you did a study of crime and selected cities with a population of 100,000 or less, Lake Forest would turn out to be one of the least safest cities in the U.S. because we are so close to 100,000 and the rest of the cities would be much lower.

We are not one of the safest cities in the U.S. nor are we one of the least safest cities in the U.S. What’s significant is that by this study, at least 7 of the 12 cities in South Orange County have lower crime rates than Lake Forest, something I have been pointing out for years.

The people who claim “we are one of the safest cities in the U.S.” are lying. I can’t say it any more clearly. If they said “Among cities with 75,000 people or greater, we are one of the cities with the lowest crime rate” they would be telling the truth. But they rarely say this. For example, the Chief of Police says “Lake Forest consistently ranks in the top 4% in every year of the Safest City reports.” (Click Here) That’s simply not true. Above we have a “safest cities” report and we are not in the top 4%. We don’t even appear!

As I have said time and time again, the mythology that we are such a safe city is harmful. It can lead to people not doing enough to keep safe. It can lead to mindless acceptance of anything the Police say, when in fact our crime rate is not so good.

• · I suggested we set up a Public Safety Commission, but Councilman Robinson thinks that’s a foolish idea because our crime rate is so low. BUT it’s not so low.
• · I suggested we get competitive bids on Police services, but Councilman Robinson said our crime rate is so low, why mess with a good thing. BUT our crime rate isn’t so low. We are higher than almost all of our neighbors.
• · I suggested we do a better job with crime statistics and with deployment of Neighborhood Watch, but our Police Chief says everything is OK. Don’t worry. But I worry when most of the cities around us have less crime.
• · I asked for more scrutiny when our crime rate jumped 29% last year. Councilman Robinson and the Police Chief think it’s just an artefact. Now it’s jumped 12% so far this year, and that’s on top of the 29% last year.

The Police, the City Council, and the City staff are in a mutual admiration society. One of the foundations of this mutual admiration society is the lie they are telling us about what a good job they are doing and how low our crime rate is. The only one who loses in this scenario is the people of Lake Forest who are not getting the quality of services they deserve, and yet think they are getting.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on April 2 at 2 pm at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.

b2xE֋G