Preparing for Strategic Planning

There was some interesting reading in the last two Sunday newspapers, and these articles can help us getting ready for our strategic planning sessions in September.

HOME PRICES

Median home sales in Lake Forest ($670,000) and Foothill Ranch ($647,500) still trail most cities in South Orange County and even all homes in Orange County ($698,500). Close to home, only a few cities have lower median sales prices –

• Laguna Woods - $320,000
• RSM - $579,600
• Aliso Viejo - $600,000
• Irvine (92614) - $605,000
• Irvine (92612) - $610,000
• FOOTHILL RANCH - $647,500
• Mission Viejo (92691) - $665,000
• Mission Viejo (92692) - $673,000
• LAKE FOREST - $670,000

All the other median home sales in South OC exceed our own. We are #17 and #19 out of 24 cities. At the top of the range, Laguna Beach ($1,705,000), Irvine 92603 ($1,575,000) and San Clemente 92673 -($1,020,000).

Of course the data here includes both condos and single family homes which differ significantly. The median home sales price for condos was $480,000 and for resale SFR it was $755,000 and for new SFRs it was $811,250.

Take away – Lake Forest has attractively priced homes compared to the rest of Southern California.

BIRTH RATE

Last year California reached the lowest birth rate on record – 12.4 births per 1,000 people. In Southern California the rate was 12.3. As fewer children are being born, more people are living longer, which means that the proportion of the senior population is growing and the people with children are declining.

Take away – we need to be more conscious of planning for the older population as it increases from less than 10% to more than 20%. Most facilities in our parks are designed for young children and adolescents. As this population decreases and older people increase, we should be re-modeling with this in mind.

RETAIL

Retail sales for stores are shrinking as online sales increase. Retail stores are closing and retail jobs are decreasing. Yet local governments depend on sales tax as a main source of revenue. In Lake Forest, for 2016-17 sales tax revenue is our second biggest source of revenue, accounting for 33% which is below 2015-6 (36%), 2014-5 (35%), and 2013-4 (36%). In sheer numbers, revenue had been increasing from $12,900,000 (2013-4) to $13,550,000 (2014-5), but shrank in 2017-8 from $14,778,000 (2015-16) to $14,700,000.

At the OC Business Council some suggestions were

• Tax marijuana sales
• Tax services
• Increase taxes on commercial properties
• Reduce sales tax rebates to businesses
• Promote retail which is immune to online sales

Take away – sales tax is a major revenue source for the city and we may be in danger of decreasing in the future. The city needs to make a major effort to re-think sales tax revenue and come up with ways to sustain our revenue.

MORE ON STRATEGIC PLANNING

Here are links to previous article on strategic planning.

Mid Year report

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/mid-year-report-part-1

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/mid-year-report-part-2

Challenges Ahead

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/meeting-challenges-engaging-people

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/meeting-challenges-talent-management

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/new-lake-forest-administrative-challenges

General

https://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/strategic-planning-starts-here

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on Sept 9 at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.