Should 99 Cents Stores Be Granted a Liquor License?

Tonight the Council will consider whether or not we need more stores selling beer and wine in a City that is already over-saturated with these types of stores. Indeed, in some parts of the City we have more than 3 times the number of stores allowed by the State. We have gone way beyond our quota because the Council and the Commission have allowed this to happen. Every time the issue comes up, they ignore the enormous evidence that shows conclusively that every time you add a store that sells beer and wine, the number of crimes, especially violent crimes goes up. Is there a causal relationship between our over-saturation of alcohol and the fact that from 2011 to 2013 we had more murders in Lake Forest than all other 9 cities in South Orange County (patrolled by OCSD) combined.

Here is a chart of the relationship between per capita rates of stores selling beer and wine and per capita rates of serious crimes. The axis on the right shows the stores (per 100,000 people) and the axis on the left shows the serious crime rate (per 100,000). The dots in the middle of the chart represent cities, 3 of which are named. The data is from 2013. Serious crime is taken from Part 1 of the FBI reports. Number of stores is taken from the state agency.

The chart shows a nearly 1:1 relationship between serious crime and availability of alcohol. Cities with more stores have more crime. It’s as simple and straight forward as that. A nearly identical chart can be produced for the relationship between DUI arrests and availability of alcohol.

There may be reasons to add stores selling beer and wine. There may be a store that sells beer and wine and wants to open in Lake Forest, but wouldn’t do so without being able to sell beer and wine in our City. Trader Joes, Mothers Market, and Costco come to mind. One might consider the definite negative consequences of more stores selling beer and wine in order to attract a highly desirable new store. But 99 Cents Stores are already here.

There may be a reason to add a store that offers more convenient hours. But 99 Cents Stores actually offers less convenient hours than the stores that current are in their tract.

There may be a reason to add a store than offers some unique types of specialty wines or beer. But 99 Cents Stores offer mainly Chardonnay, White Zinfandel, Pinto Grigio etc. that are readily available everywhere.

So there is no reason to suffer the inevitable harsh consequences of more stores selling beer and alcohol by allowing 99 Cents Stores to sell them. Moreover, our City has a fixed quota on the number of such licenses that can be issued, so granting a license to 99 Cents Stores means that in the future, when Trader Joes or Costco or some other highly desirable store wants to open in lake Forest, we might not have the license to grant them because it has been squandered on 99 Cents Stores.