A Vision for Lake Forest - Key Performance Indicators

We’re spending the week discussing my vision for ways to make life in Lake Forest even better. Many people don’t realize that what happens at City hall impacts almost every aspect of our lives, from the amount of traffic, to what our streets look like, what our neighbors can and can’t do, what choices we have with regard to shopping, how we spend our recreation time, etc.

On Monday we discussed ways to involve more people. Tuesday we looked at making government more responsive. Wednesday we discussed how to improve the ways in which we plan and on Thursday we suggested ways to make better decisions. Today the focus is on achieving better performance.

Any analysis of what makes a company profitable boils down to the ability to produce at a reasonable cost a product that is desired by the public. When we focus on public agencies, the cost factors and the purchase options are transformed, which is why so many public agencies perform so poorly. Nonetheless there are some performance indicators that we can examine and which help give guidance to City official as to how well they’re doing their job.

Today we’ll focus on Public Safety since this is such an important topic.

Nothing is more important to residents than public safety, and this is an area where there are several indicators which should become a regular part of Council and Commission discussions.

CRIME STATISTICS

Crime statistics can be looked at in terms of absolute numbers, population based (ie., crime rate which is absolute numbers divided by population), and comparative (looking at our numbers and comparting them to our neighbors).

After much criticism from me, the City now posts crime statistics on the City website. That’s a big step forward. Prior to my articles on this subject it was nearly impossible to get the true figures. Click here for the link.

The City only provides absolute numbers, not rate nor comparative data. It also has some limited trend data, showing totals from 2011 to 2013 and then YTD figures for 2014. As limited as this is, it’s a BIG step forward.

According to the City’s website, from Jan through August we have more rapes, robberies, and stolen vehicles, but fewer murders, assaults, burglaries and thefts.

Unfortunately, the data, limited as it is, is never used in the decision making process. When the Council recently discussed (at my instigation) whether or not to look at contracting with the City of Irvine, which has a far superior record to the OC Sheriff’s Dept. (with whom we currently contract), Councilman Bass based his decision on the fact he felt safe walking his neighborhood at night! Mrs. McCullough was content with the fact that the City of Irvine had more murders, numerically, than Lake Forest, but she failed to consider that Irvine has 3 times the population. In fact, the murder rate for Irvine is less than the murder rate for Lake Forest, but Mrs. McCullough is unable to distinguish between number and rate.

Lake Forest’s murder rate over the past 10 years is higher than the rate in the cities of Dana Point, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, RSM, Laguna Beach, Mission Viejo, and Irvine. Only 3 cities in South Orange County have higher murder rates. That’s something to be concerned about! Any discussion of Police services should begin with that figure, not with whether or not a Councilman feels safe walking his neighborhood at night.

Next time we’ll continue our discussion of Performance Indicators for public safety, looking at economic factors

About Jim Gardner

Dr. Jim Gardner is the editor of CITY WATCH on The Patch and a contributing editor to OC Politics and Voice of OC. He is running for City Council in Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook.