COVID Cases Drop; Breakthrough Infections More Rare Than Thought

LOS ANGELES, CA — Coronavirus hospitalizations continued to fall Tuesday, creating hope that death rates will start to come down in the coming days. It's the latest sign that the fourth coronavirus surge may be ebbing.

It also comes as authorities seek to put the risk of s0-called breakthrough infections among vaccinated residents into perspective. In highly vaccinated states such as California, the risk of a vaccinated person becoming infected on any given day is roughly 1, in 10,000, the New York Times reported based on statistics kept in Utah; Virginia; and the Seattle area.

Despite the low risk of breakthrough infections, many vaccinated people overestimate their likelihood of becoming sick from the coronavirus with 47 percent of Americans believing they are likely to become ill, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. That worry comes despite the fact that 75 percent of the nation's adults have received at least one shot, according to the Times.

Across the Southland this week, there are signs that widespread vaccination staved off a severe outbreak such as the winter surge despite the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant.Local hospitals continued seeing drops in the number of COVID-positive patients Tuesday. At the same time, health officials are bracing to see if Labor Day gatherings will lead to an increase in cases as is often the case with holiday celebrations.

As of Tuesday, infections among health care workers in Los Angeles County have also been trending downward after two months of increases over the summer.

According to state figures, there were 1,433 patients in COVID-19 in county hospitals as of Tuesday, a drop of 30 from a day earlier. There were 415 people being treated in intensive care, up slightly from 412 on Monday.

The county Department of Public Health reported another nine fatalities due to COVID on Tuesday, raising the cumulative death toll from throughout the pandemic to 25,465.

Another 1,060 cases were confirmed, for a pandemic total of 1,421,616.

The numbers of new deaths and infections are likely low due to typical reporting delays from the weekend and Labor Day.

County health officials also reported that infections among health care workers -- which rose in June and July -- have been on the decline over the past few weeks. According to the county, there were 534 new COVID cases among health care workers during the week that ended Aug. 7. But during the week that ended Thursday, just 291 health care worker cases were reported -- 178 of them among fully vaccinated workers.

All health-care workers in the state must be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Sept. 30.

According to the county, 44,441 health care workers and first responders have tested positive for COVID during the pandemic, and 284 have died. Most of those deaths occurred between July 2020 and February 2021, according to the Department of Public Health.

"Reflecting the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines, deaths among healthcare workers are low," county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement. "As we have implemented layers of protection, including universal masking indoors, and continue to increase overall vaccination coverage, we are seeing declines in L.A. County metrics.

"Of the nearly 10.3 million L.A. County residents, including those who are not yet eligible for the vaccine, 56% are fully vaccinated. When we keep increasing vaccination coverage, while masking up and applying other layers of protection, we break the chain of transmission and protect the most vulnerable and the 1.3 million children not yet eligible for vaccine."

Last week, health officials confirmed the presence of what's known as the Mu variant of the virus, which is described as highly contagious and potentially able to evade vaccines. According to the health department, 167 instances of the Mu variant have been detected in the county, all between June 19 and Aug. 21, with most of them found in July.

The Mu variant -- officially labeled a "variant of interest" by the World Health Organization -- was first discovered in Colombia in January, and has since been detected in 39 countries.

Some initial reviews of the variant have indicated it has the potential to evade currently available vaccines. But in a statement Friday, county health officials said "more studies are needed to determine whether Mu variant is more contagious, more deadly or more resistant to vaccine and treatments than other COVID-19 strains."

The Delta variant remains the dominant COVID-19 strain circulating in the county, with Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer saying Thursday it represents nearly all of the cases that undergo the sequencing needed to identify specific viral mutations. Delta is labeled a "variant of concern" by the WHO.

Ferrer noted Thursday that the county has begun to see decreases in the rate of new infections. According to Ferrer, the county's cumulative seven-day rate of new cases was 159 per 100,000 residents last week, a 16% drop from the previous week and down 22% from the peak of 204 per 100,000 residents in mid-August.

The county's rolling seven-day average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus fell Tuesday to 2.7%, down from 3.3% on Friday.

City News Service