COVID Hospitalizations Climb, Raising Specter Of LA Winter Surge

LOS ANGELES, CA — COVID-19 hospitalizations are climbing in Los Angeles County, and health officials this week are urging people to vaccinated or get booster shots ahead of the holidays.

For millions of people vaccinated at the end of 2020 through spring, their immunity may be waning, warned Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services. He urged people to get their boosters as health officials brace for a potential winter surge.

Unvaccinated residents are still far more susceptible to becoming severely ill or dying if they get infected. There are still millions of people in Los Angeles County who have not gotten the shot, raising the specter of another winter surge if not quite as catastrophic as last year's.
“I don’t think we’ll have the same huge peak we had last winter, but I do think we will see another peak,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, told the New York Times. “And the big difference will be because of the large number of people vaccinated.”

According to state figures, there were 632 COVID-positive patients in county hospitals as of Monday, up from 600 on Sunday. Of those hospitalized, 156 were being treated in intensive care, down from 163 the previous day.
The average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus in the county was 1% as of Monday. The county's cumulative seven-day case rate, as estimated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, rose last week to 98 cases per 100,000 residents. That number was in the mid-70s two weeks ago.

At 98 cases per 100,000 residents, the county is on the verge of being downgraded out of the CDC's "substantial" transmission category to the "widespread" category.

"Our weekly case rate is 98 new cases per 100,000 residents, reflecting continued substantial and borderline high transmission across the county," county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement Monday. "Unfortunately, increased transmission among those not vaccinated will affect vaccinated people, as well -- which is why additional protections such as masking remain so important. Getting vaccinated, getting boosters, and masking up indoors and in crowded outdoor spaces remains critical as we confront the real possibility of a winter surge."

County health officials said last week, and reiterated Monday, that unvaccinated residents are now seven times more likely to become infected with COVID than their vaccinated counterparts, and 44 times more likely to be hospitalized. The risk of death is 60 times higher among the unvaccinated, according to the county.

Another 10 COVID-19 deaths were reported by the county Department of Public Health, giving the county an overall virus death toll of 26,872. Meanwhile, 824 new infections were reported, a typically low number for a Monday due to lags in reporting of test results from the weekend. The new cases gave the county a cumulative total from throughout the pandemic of 1,512,147.

Of the more than 5.9 million fully vaccinated people in the county, 72,163 have subsequently tested positive, for a rate of 1.22%, according to the county. A total of 2,424 vaccinated people have been hospitalized, for a rate of 0.041%, and 396 have died, a rate of 0.007%.

As of last week, 81% of county residents aged 12 and over have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine, and 73% are fully vaccinated. Of the county's overall 10.3 million population, 70% have received at least one dose, and 63% are fully vaccinated.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.