School Board Races Are Too Close To Call

“There are a lot of votes left to be counted. The election can swing either way.” - Marvin Rodriguez

Going into this election season, the charter school industry had to win all three contested LAUSD school board seats to maintain their majority. Its goals were given a lift when the teachers’ union (UTLA) decided not to put up a qualified candidate to run against Nick Melvoin in Board District 4. After having $2 million spent in his favor, the unpopular board member managed to win 59.28% of the vote in the primary, allowing him to avoid the need for a runoff. One down, two to go.

The charter schools were presented with another gift when UTLA endorsed Board President Kelly Gonez in Board District 6. However, even with the support of both special interest groups (and $315,810 in spending), Gonez received less than 50% of the primary vote and faced LAUSD parent and teacher Marvin Rodriguez on Tuesday.

After spending an additional $554,998, having district-owned Twitter feeds used to promote her campaign, and using her district office to sponsor and promote an event as voters received their ballots, Gonez seemed poised to dominate her opponent, who had spent only $600 during the general election campaign. However, on the morning after Election Day, the School Board President was only 298 votes ahead.

A similar story is being told in Board District 2, where Dr. Rocio Rivas faced Monica Garcia’s hand-picked successor, Maria Brenes in a district whose boundaries had been drawn by Brenes’ husband. In that race, supporters of the charter school industry spent $4,846,918 in support of Brenes. As the endorsee of UTLA, Rivas was able to counter this with $2,160,060 in spending. Despite being outspent by $2,686,857, Rivas was only 852 votes behind Brenes on the Morning after Election Day.

It is very possible that both Rodriguez and Rivas can overcome the initial deficits as additional votes are counted. A win by either one would end the charter school industry's control of the board.

All of the candidates were asked for a statement relating to the election results so far. Only Marvin Rodriguez provided one:

“There are a lot of votes left to be counted. The election can swing either way. However, we are confident that our message of the community working to deliver the neighborhood schools and educational opportunities our students deserve resonates with our neighbors.”

The following is the schedule that the county clerk will use to provide updates to the vote count:

Updated Vote Counts:

• Results as of 11/10/2022 4:23:14 PM.

• Results as of 11/11/2022 4:09:19 PM:

Dr. Rivas has pulled ahead. Marvin Rodriguez lost some ground but is still in the hunt.

• Results as of 11/12/2022 3:54:36 PM:

In a surprise release on Saturday both Rivas and Gonez inched up slightly:

• Results as of 11/14/2022 3:32:03 PM:

Not sure why the County Registrar bothered to put out a schedule in advance as they seem to be releasing results almost every day. In the latest update, Rivas put some space between her and Brenes. Gonez inched up slightly.

• Results as of 11/16/2022 3:20:58 PM:

Rivas pads her lead while Rodriguez makes up a little ground.

• Results as of 11/17/2022 3:37:23 PM:

Rivas continues to pull away from her opponent. Rodriguez cuts further into Gonez’s lead, but does he have enough runway to completely close the gap?

• Results as of 11/18/2022:

I would imagine that Rivas is close to securing the win. Gonez continues to lose votes to Rodriguez.

• Results as of 11/19/2022 4:48:23 PM:

The trend of the past few days continues. My guess is that Brenes has already started closing up shop for her campaign. She will pretend that Kevin De Leon never supported her as she sets her sights on replacing him on the LA City Council. Gonez is hoping the ballots run out before Rodriguez has the chance to overtake her.

Carl Petersen is a parent advocate for students with special education needs and public education. He was elected to the Northridge East Neighborhood Council and is the Education Chair. As a Green Party candidate in LAUSD’s District 2 School Board race, he was endorsed by Network for Public Education (NPE) Action. Dr. Diane Ravitch has called him “a valiant fighter for public schools in Los Angeles.” For links to his blogs, please visit www.ChangeTheLAUSD.com. Opinions are his own.