Black Friday Losing Appeal, But OC Retailers Expect Gains

By PAUL ANDERSON

The holiday shopping season, which traditionally begins the day after Thanksgiving, should see about a 5 percent improvement for Orange County retailers this year, a Chapman University economist predicted.

In the past, Black Friday was one of the busiest shopping days of the year, but “is losing its appeal,” according to Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research.

“It’s not what it used to be, and part of the reason is retailers start so early discounting and then even after Black Friday you can find deals even better than Black Friday’s,” Adibi told City News Service. “The competition is so severe people are realizing they’re not necessarily getting the best deals.”

The holiday shopping season is actually extending into overtime because of the proliferation of gift cards, which are often cashed in after Christmas and New Year’s Day, Adibi said.

Gift cards “are pushing a lot of sales into January,” Adibi said.

Orange County’s improving economy will fuel sales, Adibi said.

“We’ve been creating good, healthy jobs locally and in the state,” Adibi said.

Rising home prices are bolstering consumer confidence, Adibi said.

“If you feel richer you spend more of your current income or you use your credit card more,” Adibi said.

Plummeting gas prices are another factor boosting sales, Adibi said.

“What is more important this year than ever is the gasoline,” Adibi said. “We consume about 14 billions of gas a year in California. Think about it this way -- gas prices go up 50 cents and that’s $7 billion more than we would pay for the gas so when gas prices go down 50 cents it’s $7 billion in savings, which stays in the local economy.”

Lower gas prices really matter for lower-income consumers because “that extra five bucks means the difference between eating out or not,” Adibi said.

The only real drag on the local holiday shopping forecast is “stagnant wages,” Adibi said.

“But we’re seeing wage improvement in some sectors, but it’s not widespread,” Adibi said.

Orange County’s unemployment rate stands at 4.3 percent, much lower than the state and national figures of 5.8 percent and 5.1 percent, Adibi said.

As has been the tradition in recent years, Black Friday will get an early start at major retailers.

At the Irvine Spectrum Center, Black Friday shopping began at midnight. The shopping center will add to the holiday festivities with free ice skating as well as rides on the Giant Wheel and the Carousel. Early-bird shoppers can expect free valet parking from midnight to 8 a.m. Friday.

Disney Magical Holiday Lights’ display of holiday music and a light show will be presented in the shopping center’s Edwards Courtyard at 5:30 p.m.

City News Service