2026 CA Governor's Race: Primary Election Weeks Away. What To Know

SACRAMENTO, CA — The primary election for California's gubernatorial contest is just over a month away, and the unusual election which has been hampered by scandals and controversies continues to evolve.

Former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race April 11 and resigned from Congress following bipartisan calls for him to end his campaign and step down from Congress. Experts say his departure had a tremendous impact on the unusual gubernatorial race. Before the sexual assault allegations surfaced, Swalwell, who represented the Bay Area, received the support of 17 percent of likely voters, polls showed.

Swalwell has denied the allegations of sexual assault amid ongoing criminal investigations into the allegations.

Swalwell's exit from the California governor's race on April 11 immediately triggered a shift that allowed former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra to advance in a new poll, gaining the support of 10 percent of likely voters, while fellow Democrat and billionaire Tom Steyer was the frontrunner among Democrats with 14 percent of support among likely voters. Former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, who received President Donald Trump's endorsement earlier this month, received 17 percent of support and was leading his Republican rival Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Former Rep. Katie Porter was in a dead heat with Becerra at 10 percent, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan received the support of 5 percent of likely voters.

The poll, which was released on Thursday, was commissioned by the right-leaning Nexstar Media Group and Inside California Politics, and conducted by Emerson College April 14 through April 15.

Last month, California Democratic National Committee Chair Rusty Hicks released an open letter and made an unexpected plea for the Democratic field of contenders to "assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign," but stopped short of calling out any candidates or pressuring anyone to drop their bid. However, former state controller Betty Yee may have gotten the memo after announcing on Monday she was ending her campaign. Lee, who campaigned for two years, was polling with about 3 percent of support of likely voters.

Hicks called on Democrats to follow Yee's "example" and drop out of the race if their campaigns aren't performing well.

"My call for all candidates to honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaigns still stands – especially if you are stalled in the single digits, seeing financial resources drying up, and/or failing to pick up additional support," Hicks said.

A Crowded Field

With the primary election slated for June 2 — and seven major Democratic candidates currently splitting the vote — 27 percent of likely voters remain undecided about the election, which could affect the candidates who have moved up the polls.

"The Emerson poll shows Becerra going from 7th or 8th place to tied for 4th or 5th place right now. Swalwell's exit, at least based on this poll, seems to have benefitted Steyer, Porter, Becerra, and Mahan — all Democrats who have improved over the last Emerson poll," said Christian Grose, a political expert and director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab.

"However, I think Steyer or Porter are best poised to benefit from Swalwell's exit as they have consistently polled the best among Democrats over multiple polls. The Emerson poll's results for other candidates will need to be replicated elsewhere before I believe there is movement for Becerra or Mahan. The race is fluid so seeing multiple polls with increases in these candidate numbers could help," Grose added.

The sexual assault allegations against Swalwell were one of a handful of controversies Democrats were fending off in the 2026 gubernatorial election. Bianco, who is polling second to Hilton, has been embroiled in a legal battle with Attorney General Rob Bonta and voter groups over allegations of possible voter fraud in Riverside County during the Proposition 50 special election in November.

State Democrats have repeatedly denied allegations of voter fraud and called into question the evidence used to conclude there possible signs of voting irregularities. On April 8, the California Supreme Court ordered Bianco to pause his investigation after his department seized more than 650,000 ballots.

"Other candidates to watch include Matt Mahan, who is launching a large ad campaign, and could boost in another poll," said Grose. " I also am interested to see what Antonio Villaraigosa has planned, as he has started running ads against Xavier Becerra and that could bring Becerra back down to single digits. I would also keep an eye on more polls as we can learn from those who is benefiting from Swalwell leaving. It may be that voters who supported Swalwell are simply redistributing support to other Democrats, not fundamentally changing the race."

Unmotivated Voters

Some experts have blamed a lack of star power and name recognition for the lackluster enthusiasm among voters for this year's gubernatorial election.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris' prospects of becoming California's next governor were being floated last week in a text poll asking California voters if they would write in Harris on the ballot in November's race, in addition to several other questions about Harris.

The Emerson poll showed Steyer holding 14 percent of support of likely voters, but a poll released last week from SurveyUSA showed Steyer was leading among all candidates with 21 percent of likely voters.

Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, has eclipsed his Democratic rivals, having spent or booked more than $115 million on his campaign in advertisements for television, cable tv, and radio, according to data compiled by AdImpact.

But experts say even with a massive war chest, Steyer still faces challenges.

"If your first round of ads doesn’t move you dramatically (in the polls), the third, fourth, fifth, six, seventh and eighth rounds won’t either," veteran Democratic strategist Bill Carrick told The Mercury News. "There is something inherently holding Steyer back.

Mail-in ballots for this year's election will be sent to voters next month.