CA Recall Poll: 6% Would Vote For Jenner, Newsom's Approval Rises

BERKELEY, CA — A recall campaign to oust progressive Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom did not gain the traction supporters had hoped for in recent months, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll.

Just 36 percent of California's voters who participated in the May 11 poll said they would recall the governor, unchanged from January. And 49 percent said they would vote "no" in the recall, up four points from three months ago. Another 15 percent said they were undecided, the survey found.

"Opinions about removing Newsom from office continue to be sharply divided along partisan and ideological lines," surveyors wrote.

And even more dismal news for supporters of the recall — none of the four prominent Republican candidates are generating much support. Fewer than one in four voters statewide said they would back any of them.

The four GOP candidates are former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer; former Rep. Doug Ose (Sacramento); businessman John Cox and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner.

Jenner may be the biggest name among them, but only 6 percent said they would vote for the retired Olympic gold medalist. The reality TV star recently branded herself as a "compassionate disrupter" in her first campaign video, where she attacked Newsom as an "elitist."

By contrast, Arnold Schwarzenegger had much more support before he entered the recall race to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in 2003, the Los Angeles Times reported. He had around 31 percent who were inclined to vote for him, according to a Field Poll that was launched just months before the actual election.

In the UC Berkeley poll, Faulconer and Cox pulled ahead of their fellow candidates, with the largest shares of voters, 22 percent.

"However, in each case more than twice as many are not inclined to do so and about three in ten have no opinion," surveyors said.

Ose had a backing of 14 percent, but 48 percent also said they would not vote for him.

Meanwhile, Newsom's approval rating ticked up slightly from January. Some 52 percent of California's voters said they approve of the job he's doing now. But he's still far behind where he was last September when 64 percent of voters were pleased with his governance.

"Newsom benefits from the improving situation with the pandemic but there are still some warning signs — the low interest of Democratic voters and the substantial number of undecided voters. But the Governor is now in better shape and is helped by the absence of a compelling GOP alternative," said Eric Schickler, co-director of the university's governmental studies department.

The governor's rebound in approval stems from voters who are pleased with his more recent handling of the coronavirus pandemic compared to three months ago, the poll found. But voters continue to scrutinize his handling of homelessness and housing costs — which are surging in the Golden State.

READ MORE: Housing Prices Surge In The Golden State: Here's Why

Democratic voters who participated in the poll also expressed immense interest in having a prominent Democratic candidate on the recall ballot if Newsom were to be voted out, the poll found.

Since word the recall began gaining traction publicly, Democratic leaders have urged fellow Democrats to abstain from running as a replacement candidate, in a show of solidarity for Newsom.

But 48 percent of voters in the survey said they would prefer to have a prominent Democrat included. Some 29 percent said they wouldn't want a Democrat on the ballot and 23 percent were undecided, the poll found.

The poll also found a "striking" variance in opinions about the recall across different regions of California. Between the state's major urban cities — San Francisco and Los Angeles — most voters want to keep Newsom in office.

In stark contrast, support outweighs opposition for the recall in the Inland Empire, the Central Valley and the North Coast/Sierra region, the poll found.

To battle the upcoming recall election and to move Californians past a devastating coronavirus pandemic, the governor recently announced a cascade of new spending for struggling residents.

The proposed spending includes an ambitious $100 billion relief package made possible by a striking $267.8 billion budget and another $27 billion in pandemic aid from the federal government.

"We are trying to do things this state has talked about but never been able to accomplish because we've never had the resources to do it," Newsom said on Friday. "This is not a budget that plays small ball."

The first-term governor is trying to land initiatives wherever he can to circumnavigate his way back to higher approval ratings as he faces a set of circumstances that no other California governor ever has.

And according to Tim Rosales, a veteran GOP strategist, it might just work.

With conditions in the state improving "it's harder and harder to maintain that level of ... anger" during the worst days of the pandemic, he said, adding that Newsom is "on the right trajectory in terms of his approval ratings."

As the threat of spreading coronavirus fades, the economy heals and Californians return to normalcy, Rosales warned that Republican candidates will need to underscore policy differences on issues such as taxes and homelessness instead of depending on existing resentment from pandemic spurred business closures and restrictions.

Meanwhile, Newsom has continued to tear down the recall effort and frame it as a political "power grab" concocted by the Republican party.

"Now is not the time to waste hundreds of millions of dollars on a recall effort that is nothing more than a partisan power grab," Newsom said earlier this month. "I hope people take the time to discover what this actually is."

The election will likely be scheduled for the fall.

"Right now the recall is not in the hands of the governor or its backers. This is all about the direction of the state," said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. "What really matters is where we are in the fall."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.