Is the Fifth Congressional District swinging again?

By Scott Benjamin

WATERBURY – With Republican George Logan’s entry, is the “swing district” swinging again?

The evidence is that it again might be a swinger, since Logan can imitate Jimi Hendrix’s Woodstock amplified guitar riffs with his tribute band.

Seriously, we’re talking about the district where roughly 75 percent of the races from 1972 through 2014 were at least semi-competitive and/or interesting.

The one where no congressman since 1972 has served in the district for more than six years, but has been the launching pad for Republican John Rowland becoming governor and Democrat Chris Murphy ascending to the U.S. Senate.

Is the district that has only elected Democrats since 2006, and where some suburbs and rural towns have trended more Democratic over the recent years really now, once again, a swinger?

“With high inflation and the overspending by the Democrats, I think that bodes well for my campaign,” Logan said in an interview with Patch.com regarding his effort to unseat two-term Democrat Jahana Hayes of Wolcott, the 2016 National Teacher of the Year.

So the Fifth Congressional District – the odd-shaped 41-municipality conglomeration that stretches from Newtown to Salisbury - is definitely once again a swinger?

“That's a wonderful question as the ‘swing district’ has not been ‘swinging’ for quite some time,” Sacred Heart University Government Department Chairman Gary Rose stated in an e-mail message.

Rose added, “Logan is precisely the sort of candidate that the Republicans would want to run against Jahana Hayes, not only because of his credentials and legislative experience, but also because of his race.”

Logan, whose parents came to the United States from Guatemala, is the likely GOP nominee. The other candidate in the race is Michelle Botelho of Danbury.

Logan lives in Ansonia, just outside the district, and served for two terms in the state Senate before losing his 2020 re-election bid.

Brett Broesder of Milford, the executive director of Democrats Serve, noted that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a Frontline Program that is dedicated to swing districts.

“Connecticut only has one congressman in a swing district, and that is Jahana Hayes,” Broesder said.

Hayes, the first African-American woman elected to the U.S. House in Connecticut, captured a second term in 2020 by nearly 40,000 votes. No Republican has won any congressional race in Connecticut since Chris Shays in 2006 in the Fourth District.

The Democrats have held the Fifth District under three congressmen since Murphy, then living in Cheshire, outpolled 24-year veteran Republican Nancy Johnson of New Britain in 2006.

Since the now-defunct Sixth District was merged with the Fifth District before the 2002 election, the cities have been a measuring stick for success.

Dave Boomer, who managed Johnson’s campaigns in 2002 and 2006, has said that the Democratic nominee needed to collectively win the top five cities – Waterbury, Danbury, New Britain, Meriden and Torrington - by at least 15,000 votes.

The Democrats have done that in each election since 2006. They also have been scoring victories over that time in the some of the previous Republican strongholds in the Northwest Corner of Litchfield County – such as Salisbury and Kent. They also have triumphed in recent years in such suburban towns as Simsbury, New Milford and Newtown, which had been in the GOP column.

CT News Junkie columnist Susan Bigelow wrote earlier this year that the congressional reapportionment might send Bristol from the First District to the Fifth District and place New Britain, which has been part of the Fifth District since 2002, to the First District.

Ruben Rodriguez of Waterbury, who sought the Republican nomination in the Fifth Congressional District in 2020 and is a leader in the Puerto Rican community, said “The cities will be a major factor.”

Rose added, “It is very true that the urban components of the 5th CD are critical to the 2022 election outcome. But I have some doubts if Congresswoman Hayes has the distinct advantage in those areas compared to her previous elections. I believe Logan can cut into her urban advantage which of course is essential for a Republican candidate.”

Rodriguez said about 15 percent of the district’s current population is Latino, about five percent African-American and two percent Asian-American.

Said Logan, “The Fifth District is mostly center-right. That includes the cities. I think particularly with the growing Latino population in the cities, the Republican values are common with what the Latino community wants.”

“The goal is not relying on government, but for a government that plays a role,” he explained.

State Rep. Stephen Harding (R-107) of Brookfield said, ““I think, generally speaking, that Latino voters, are interested in the same issues as the rest of the electorate.”

Rodriguez said that the highest per capita migration of Puerto Ricans to the United States is in Connecticut. He indicated that there has been a surge in Waterbury, New Britain and Meriden and a recent “spike” in Torrington.

He said a Republican candidate can attract Latino voters through sustained contact. He said after voter outreach in Virginia, for example, the polling shows that between the 2017 and 2021 gubernatorial races there, the Democrats’ share of the Latino vote dropped from 80 percent to 50 percent.

In 1979, Ned Coll, then the director of the Hartford Revitalization Corps, did a survey that showed that U.S. Sen. Abraham Ribicoff (D-Cornwall) and then-U.S. Rep. Chris Dodd (D-2) did not have any people of color on their congressional staffs.

Is that still a problem?

Remarked Logan, “I would not set a quota per se in my hiring of congressional staff, but I would seek diversity. I do think there are a lot of people of color who would be great congressional staffers.”

Wall Street Journal columnist Gerard Baker recently wrote that no presidential candidate has gone beyond 53 percent of the popular vote in the eight elections since 1992.

He suggested that there is a path for the Republicans to get beyond 53 percent of the national vote.

“Recent political trends suggest the electoral opportunity: a multiracial coalition of the working and middle classes that disdains the progressive authoritarianism of the left but wants policies that address their daily economic struggles,” Baker explained.

Logan said, “Our campaign is about the future, and I would argue that Connecticut Republicans are already doing that.”

How vulnerable is Hayes?

Congressional Quarterly stated years ago that the comfort level for a congressman starts at 55 percent of the vote.

Hayes had 55.9 percent of the votes in 2018 and 55,1 percent in 2020, when she ran slightly ahead of the Democratic presidential ticket in the district.

Broesder, whose organization has endorsed Hayes, said, “In a really tough place to run, that is impressive.”

Rose wrote that, “The top of the ticket in today's politics has repercussions for the down ballot. A month ago I would have said that Lamont at the top of the ticket would pose serious problems for George Logan in light of the governor's 56% approval rating (SHU Poll). But now I see Lamont's poll numbers declining (most recent SHU Poll). If this trend continues, then Logan's chances of winning the suburbs will increase.”

Through the recent years, departing Brookfield Democratic First Selectman Steven Dunn has called Hayes “highly intelligent,” and praised her commitment not just to issues in the district, but to national concerns.

In a recent e-mail statement, he added, “She has truly listened to us and has always voted in Congress to better both our nation and her district."

During the pandemic, Hayes has been a leader on child care issues as the Democratic caucus has proposed stimulus packages.

However, Rose said that there have been concerns about her performance.

“Hayes' constituent service has been an issue since she took office, and I understand there are some issues with newspaper reporters as well,” he wrote. “Based on my own observations, which I realize are just my own, she does not seem to have the same presence with the 5th CD that her predecessors had. She might very well have a presence in some of the CD's communities, but from my vantage point it does not seem to be at the same level as the previous occupants of this congressional seat.”

Harding added, “Congresswoman Hayes is very personable and highly intelligent and I imagine that she is putting in a lot of time on issues in Washington. But you don’t see the same presence in the communities that [former Democratic] Congresswoman [Elizabeth] Esty had. She was highly visible. You also don’t see the same constituent outreach. Esty was excellent at that. Some of this may be due to the pandemic, but it was that way before the pandemic and it seems to be that way again now as we’re starting to come out of the pandemic.”

In an e-mail response, Barbara Ellis, Hayes’ re-election campaign manager, wrote that the congresswoman “is proud of her constituent services and her presence in the entire district.”

“The numbers do not lie. Rep. Hayes resolved 2,237 constituent cases since she took office, resulting in $16,427,162 directly into the pockets of constituents. She created “Casework on Your Corner” and brought constituent services directly to every community in CT-05, making constituent services more accessible to everyone in all 41 towns, not just a select few. She made it easier than ever for everyone to access congressional services, and people are responding. Her outreach has led to a significant increase in the number of people engaging with their Congressperson for the first time ever,” she stated.

Ellis added, “Since the beginning of Covid, Rep. Hayes brought back $8,634,348 for small businesses and $1,439,407 in relief, tax refunds, and tax credits. She procured 228 emergency passports and repatriated citizens and people stuck abroad during COVID and from Afghanistan. The feedback from constituents who have actually utilized her office has been overwhelmingly positive and consistent.”

On issues, Logan said he would have voted against the recent $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which garnered only 13 Republican votes in the U.S. House.

He complained that there had been “no report from the Congressional Budget Office on the impact on the deficit.”

“I think it is irresponsible to vote on a bill like that,” Logan explained.

CT News Junkie reported that in praising the bill recently, U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney (D-2) of Vernon said, “In a state like Connecticut, with some of the oldest infrastructure in the country, [the funding] is going to be transformational.”

Logan insisted that Congress needs to reduce federal spending.

Thus, would he support the pay as you go controls, which Congress had imposed on the recommendation of former Republican President George H.W. Bush, where additional spending is offset by revenue increases or reductions in other budget line items?

He said he opposes taking that step, explaining that “it diminishes the role of the leadership.”

Democratic President Joe Biden wants to increase the top individual tax rate from 37 percent to 39.6 percent and boost the corporate rate from 21 to 28 percent.

Logan said he supports a “fair schedule. However, taxing the rich alone is not going to solely solve our economic problem.”

He said in his talks with voters since formally entering the race in July, their chief concerns are “affordability” and “hyper-inflation.”

Some Democrats have blamed the rise in inflation on breakdowns in the global supply chain.

“I think the supply chain [obstacle] is the result of the policies coming out of Washington,” he said.

Retired Washington Post economics columnist Robert Samuelson has called on the Federal Reserve Board to increase interest rates and tighten credit, as its former chairman, Paul Volcker, did in the early 1980s to end the Great Inflation.

Samuelson recently wrote, “Stable prices make it easier for people to plan for the future. The absence of stable prices contributes to uncertainty and undermines confidence in government.”

Should interest rates increase in an effort to curb inflation?

“Absolutely not,” said Logan.

He insisted that the principal problem is that the Biden Administration and the Federal Reserve Board ‘are not in synch” in their economic policies.

The job market appears different coming out of the pandemic than where it was during the recovery from the 2008 Great Recession.

By the spring 2010, municipal social workers in the congressional district were telling The Housatonic Times that some of the residents on their emergency fund had found a full-time job but at about 70 percent of their previous salary.

This last July Stamford mayoral candidate Bobby Valentine, the former major league baseball player, told Patch.com that one restaurant owner there had scheduled 10 job interviews, nine of the candidates didn’t show up and the other candidate said he would not work nights and weekends.

Logan said, “The causes of the Great Recession were different than what has happened during the pandemic.”

“Whether perceived or real, there are people who think that they can make as much money or more not working,” he exclaimed. “We’re not doing enough to encourage people to go back to work. This artificial boost from stimulus won’t last forever.”

He lamented that, “There are fewer job opportunities in Connecticut,” which he said is largely the result of the policies of the Democrats who rule the State Capitol.

Connecticut has fewer jobs than it had at the start of the 2008 Great Recession.

However, isn’t Gov. Ned Lamont (D-Greenwich) trying to address that through the Work Force Council that he established two years ago?

“I think it has potential,” said Logan. “But with the one-party rule in Connecticut, the Democrats have dominated the discussion on that.”

Former U.S. Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), who sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, wrote in his 2018 book, “The Right Answer,” that the U.S. House spends too little time in session, and congressman too often can’t acquire expertise on issues. He said he believes the public would support them spending less time in the districts if it resulted in more money for infrastructure and public colleges.

Should the U.S. House be in session more weeks from Monday at 9 a.m. to Friday at 5 p.m.?

“I would say, ‘Yes,’ " Logan remarked. “I would rather see Congress spend more time in session than less” as long as there would be sufficient opportunity to meet with constituents.

References

Opinion | The Fed’s inflation machine: What would Volcker do? - The Washington Post

GOP Has a Chance at More Than Election Victory - WSJ

Lawmakers Call Federal Infrastructure Dollars ‘Transformational’ - CTNewsJunkie

OP-ED | What Does the 2020 Census Mean for Connecticut Politics? - CTNewsJunkie