Here's How Well CT Residents Comply With Stay-At-Home Advisory

CONNECTICUT — As the spread of coronavirus accelerated in recent weeks, more and more Americans have come under state or local stay-at-home orders and advisories, until this past weekend more than 95 percent of the population was affected.

The purpose of these orders and advisories is to minimize the spread of the virus, which is highly contagious, although the scope of the orders varies by state and locality. Compliance with them varies widely, too, as Google has demonstrated with its community mobility reports, and by the business data firm Cuebiq, which compiled its COVID-19 Mobility Insights. Both aggregate location data from cellphones to track the movements of large numbers of people.

As of March 29, Google reports that nationwide movement to retail and recreational locations, including restaurants, shopping centers, movie theaters and the like, dropped 47 percent against a baseline set for the weeks Jan. 3 to Feb. 6.

Travel to groceries and pharmacies fell 22 percent; to parks, to beaches and gardens 19 percent; to transport hubs such as bus and train stations, 51 percent; and to workplaces 42 percent. Mobility to places of residence showed the only increase, of 16 percent.

How has CT done?

In Connecticut, which has been under a stay-at-home order since March 23, all businesses except a handful deemed "essential" were urged to close. Compliance has been noticeably better than in the nation as a whole.

As of March 29, Google reports that statewide movement to retail and recreational locations, dropped 56 percent against the baseline. Travel to groceries and pharmacies fell 32 percent; to parks, beaches and gardens 52 percent; to transport hubs and similar locations, 64 percent; and to workplaces 38 percent. Mobility to places of residence increased 15 percent.

Some counties did better than others. In Fairfield County, for instance, mobility to retail and recreational locations fell 61 percent, compared to 56 percent in Hartford County, 51 percent in Litchfield County, 58 percent in Middlesex County, 56 percent in New Haven County, 56 percent in New London County, 59 percent in Tolland County, and 42 percent in Windham County.

In Fairfield County, mobility to transit stations fell 72 percent, compared to 61 percent in Hartford County, 60 percent in Middlesex County, 62 percent in New Haven County, 67 percent in New London County, 38 percent in Tolland County, and 69 percent in Windham County.

In Fairfield County, mobility to grocery store locations fell 35 percent, compared to 31 percent in Hartford County, 27 percent in Litchfield County, 28 percent in Middlesex County, 31 percent in New Haven County, 28 percent in New London County, 33 percent in Tolland County, and 27 percent in Windham County.

In Fairfield County, mobility to work fell 44 percent, compared to 35 percent in Hartford County, 33 percent in Litchfield County, 38 percent in Middlesex County, 36 percent in New Haven County, 41 percent in New London County, 37 percent in Tolland County, and 32 percent in Windham County.

See related: Coronavirus: CT Now Has 5,675 Cases, 189 People Have Died

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In general, compliance is higher in urban areas of the Northeast, upper Midwest and West Coast than in rural areas, the South and the Great Plains.

The data comes with several important caveats:

• Tracking location does not show how often or how closely people come into contact with each other, and is not necessarily a predictor of infection.
• Rural residents often must travel farther to get groceries or other necessities, while city dwellers don’t have to move far to infect others.
• Higher-income residents often are able to comply more easily than low-income residents, whose jobs do not always allow them to work from home.

But public health experts agree that abiding by stay-at-home orders and advisories is critical to slowing the spread of the virus, or in “flattening the curve” of infection. Such measures are deemed so important that authorities have instructed police to break up large gatherings of people, and even begun arresting those who violate stay-at-home orders.

The methodology of the Google report can be found at the end of this document.