New Poll Shows Tight FL Governor, U.S. Senate Races

A new University of North Florida poll shows a “dead heat” in the race for Florida governor, with Republican Byron Donalds holding a narrow lead over Democrat David Jolly, according to a UNF news release.

The poll also shows Republican incumbent Ashley Moody narrowly ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll, conducted Oct. 12-19 by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, surveyed 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters. Its overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, though the margin is higher for smaller subgroups.

Donalds leads Jolly 49 percent to 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided, the news release said. The gap has narrowed since July, when Donalds led by five percentage points.

“Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising,” Sean Freeder, the lab’s faculty director and a UNF political science professor, said in a statement.

Freeder attributed the increasingly competitive governor’s race largely to national political dynamics, noting that “midterm elections are generally difficult for the party of the president.”

In the U.S. Senate race, Moody leads Nixon 49 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Moody’s lead has also shrunk since July, when she was ahead by eight percentage points.

Independent voters favor Jolly over Donalds by 16 percentage points and Nixon over Moody by 15 points, according to the poll.

“Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds’ and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm,” Freeder said.

The poll also examined support for Amendment 3, a proposed constitutional amendment titled “Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments.”

Because of the complexity of the ballot language, respondents were told the title of the amendment, and that ‘it would increase homestead property tax exemption over time, other than those directed to schools,’” the news release said.

Half of respondents said they would vote yes, while 30 percent said they would vote no and 14 percent were undecided. The amendment would need at least 60 percent voter approval to pass.

Freeder said the results suggest the measure faces a challenge, though undecided voters could influence the outcome.

“Most of these voters would need to vote yes in order to put Amendment 3 above 60 [percent], a challenging but possible outcome,” he said.

He added that campaign advertising could influence voters’ decisions on the issue.

The poll also found that 61 percent of respondents believe protecting the environment should take priority, even if it limits economic growth and development. Twenty-six percent said economic growth should take priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent.

A majority of Democrats and independents favored environmental protection, as did 48 percent of Republicans, according to the poll.

Newer Florida residents were more likely to favor economic development, while those who had lived in the state longer tended to prioritize environmental protection, Freeder said.

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