97% Chance Named Storm Will Strike U.S. in 2016: Experts

Florida’s ability to dodge the hurricane bullet may come to an end next year, experts say.

While the close of this year’s hurricane season in November signaled a decade without a hurricane landing on Florida’s shores, Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science isn’t so sure the state will be as lucky in 2016. In fact, in its discussion of next year’s Atlantic Basin hurricane season, it predicted an 81 percent chance that Florida plus the East Coast will have a named storm make landfall in 2016. The probability of a named stormed striking the U.S. as a whole has been set at 97 percent while the Gulf Coast region has an 83 percent chance of witnessing a named storm.

When the state of Florida is isolated on its own, scientists gave it a 51 percent probability of having a hurricane make landfall in 2016. The chances of that storm being a major hurricane were set at 21 percent. Florida, in fact, leads all other states in probability of a hurricane making landfall in 2016, including Texas and Louisiana.

See Also:

• Severe Storms, Tornadoes in Tampa Bay’s 2015-16 Winter Forecast
• Tampa Bay ‘Ripe for Disaster,’ Hurricane Experts Say

Researchers acknowledged that the East Coast has had a long streak of luck in regard to lack of major hurricane landfalls since 2005’s Hurricane Wilma. Since then, none of the 27 major hurricanes that have formed have made U.S. landfall, the report notes. In listing the reasons for the storm-free streak, the report pointed out that “there is obviously a luck component that has played a significant role.” Weather patterns have also played a part.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016 arrives on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Before it arrives, however, the United States will have to deal with a winter largely dominated by the strongest El Nino on record since 1997-98.

Forecasters anticipate El Nino could bring heavy storms and tornadoes to Florida this winter. Other parts of the country, including California, are also anticipated to witness heavy rain.

Colorado State University intends to issue its first official 2016 Atlantic Basin forecast on April 14, 2016. To check out the full “Qualitative Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2016” report, visit Colorado State online.

Photo courtesy of the National Hurricane Center