Updated: Tuesday, 5:20 p.m.
Tropical Depression Nine, which is forecast to continue strengthening, formed late Tuesday afternoon in the southwest Gulf, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system is likely to become Isaias, the ninth named tropical storm of the season and this year's first hurricane, before bringing flooding rain and high winds to the U.S. central Gulf Coast this weekend, AccuWeather said. This would make it the latest first hurricane to form in over 100 years.
It's been an unusually quiet season, largely thanks to a strong El Niño climate pattern, which typically increases vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. There have been no hurricanes so far this year.
The tropical depression, a mass of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, continues to show signs of organizing and has a nearly 100 percent chance of strengthening into a named tropical storm, NHC said.
"Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days," NHC forecasters said.
By the end of the week, the system is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast, the agency said.
Though it's too early to determine its exact track or intensity, the agency said those in the Florida Panhandle to the Louisiana coast should watch the system's progress.
The system is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the U.S. Southeast later this week and weekend, AccuWeather said.
Warm Gulf waters with temperatures in the 80s are ripe for supporting tropical development. This should fuel the system, which is expected to overcome any wind shear in its path as it strengthens into a tropical depression or storm, AccuWeather forecasters said. The agency's track shows "the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening."
Steering winds, as well as a jet stream dip, are expected to direct the system northeastward. The invest is forecast to "quickly ramp up to a tropical storm before peaking as a hurricane while over the central Gulf," AccuWeather said.
It will lose wind intensity as it approaches the central Gulf Coast states, forecasters said.
AccuWeather experts think the storm will likely track near the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandles, as well as southeastern Louisiana.
Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, agrees with this track, writing in a Tuesday morning social media post, "I continue to think this ends up between New Orleans and Pensacola. Could it change? Sure. Will it change? I doubt it. Timeline? Friday-Sunday."
He expects the storm to have "little to none" impacts on the Tampa Bay area.
The system's "intensity is much trickier" to tell at this point, Phillips added. "Many models keep this a tropical storm but a few strengthen it into a hurricane. I think there's a window where it will get stronger before shear sets in."
Wind shear will be the biggest factor in the potential tropical storm's development, meteorologist Noah Bergren with Fox 35 wrote in a social media post.
He wrote, "Wind shear is the big story for Isaias. Despite record warm waters, it has a narrow window to strengthen in the southern Gulf. Any rapid, steady, or notable intensification and organizing must happen by Thursday midday before it hits hostile wind shear up north."
Bergren believes the system will most likely make landfall in Mississippi or Alabama.
"Most models bring this into the MS/AL area. Some outliers into the western Florida Panhandle or western Louisiana," he wrote. "Bottom line; I expect an impactful tropical storm coming in Friday or Saturday for a landfall. Remnant moisture into the Deep South this weekend. Lots of rain, some wind, and a few tornadoes in outer rain bands possible. Central Florida, Tampa to Orlando has for right now zero concern or impact form this system the way it stands."
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