Tropical Depression Eta Expected To Strengthen Approaching Keys

ACROSS FLORIDA — Tropical Depression Eta is forecast to strengthen and move northeastward Friday, becoming a tropical storm and bringing possible gale-force winds to Florida.

As of 11 p.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Eta continued to pummel portions of Central America with heavy rains and life-threatening floods.

The depression is currently about 85 miles northwest of La Ceiba, Honduras, and about 470 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman, moving north at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Eta has not become any better organized during the past several hours, and a specific center is hard to locate, said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake.

The initial motion is an uncertain as well. Blake said Eta should move northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn north on Sunday and west-northwest early next week.

"The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could lead to large errors down the line," said Blake.

He said the most notable change Thursday night is the depression has moved east toward Cuba and is expected to shift north near the Florida Keys.

"There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will remain after the trough interaction," Blake said. "The new forecast flattens out the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that range."

He added that, although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, "there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week."

He said residents in the Florida Keys and south Florida should monitor the depression's progress because tropical storm watches could be issued for some of these areas Friday.

A tropical storm watch is already in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. These conditions most likely will be felt in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon or night.

Significant, life-threatening flash floods are possible in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica and southeast Mexico where isolated maximum total rainfall could be 30 to 40 inches.

The mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico that's causing Eta to turn northwest could produce tropical-force winds in Florida by Sunday ranging from 64 mph in Naples, Key West and Marathon, 50 mph in West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale and Venice, and 34 mph from Tampa to Panama City and as far east as Orlando.

However, there are no watches or warnings in effect for Florida at this time.

The NHC also said the storm could bring heavy rainfall with localized flooding across South Florida starting this weekend and continuing into early next week.

Patch will keep you updated on the storm's progress.

See related stories:

• Coast Guard Sets Port Condition Whiskey Ahead Of Gale-Force Winds
• Eta Could Produce Tropical-Force Winds In Florida This Weekend