NOAA Lowers 2026 Hurricane Forecast As Peak Season Nears

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be even quieter than initially expected, according to an updated forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA now expects 7 to 13 named storms this season, including the two storms that have already formed, down slightly from the agency's May forecast of eight to 14 named storms.

The agency also lowered its forecast for hurricanes and major hurricanes.

NOAA now expects two to six hurricanes, down from three to six in its May outlook, and zero to two major hurricanes, down from one to three.

A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The updated forecast, released Thursday, gives the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season a 75 percent chance of being below normal, compared with a 55 percent chance in NOAA's May outlook.

There's now a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of an above-normal season.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on NOAA's 1991-2020 averages.

El Niño expected to limit storms

NOAA's updated outlook continues to point to El Niño as one of the biggest factors expected to limit hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

The climate pattern is expected to continue and strengthen through the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October.

Strong El Niño conditions are generally associated with increased wind shear over the Atlantic, which can make it more difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen.

At the same time, some conditions remain favorable for hurricane development. Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain slightly warmer than normal, while some other atmospheric conditions could support tropical activity, forecasters said.

Those competing factors are part of the reason NOAA continues to emphasize that the seasonal forecast cannot predict whether a particular location will be hit by a hurricane.

Peak of hurricane season approaches

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with most of the season's activity typically occurring during August, September and October.

Two named storms — Arthur and Bertha — have formed so far this year.

NOAA's updated forecast gives the season a 70 percent probability of producing between seven and 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes.

The agency also forecasts accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, between 30 percent and 90 percent of the median. ACE measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a season.

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA officials continue to warn residents not to become complacent.

Seasonal forecasts cannot determine where storms will form, when they will strike or whether a particular community will experience a tropical storm or hurricane.

"It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season," NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said when the agency issued its original forecast in May.

For Georgia residents, hurricane preparedness remains important as the season moves into its busiest stretch.

NOAA recommends residents review their hurricane plans, know their evacuation zones and make sure they have the supplies they would need if a storm threatens.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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