'Super El Niño' Could Form This Summer: What It Means For MD Hurricane Season

A developing El Niño — and a potential "Super El Niño" — will be one of the biggest forces driving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and any Maryland impacts, according to recent forecasts.

Despite the current presence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict it will weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions within the next month, likely lasting through May and June.

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions are likely to emerge between June and August and persist through at least the end of 2026. In the United States, El Niño is most associated with warmer, drier conditions in northern states as cool, wet patterns develop further south.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, but most activity occurs in mid-August through early October. Given the timing of the El Niño, that would likely lead to fewer storms during that period.

"Typically, El Niño creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape," AccuWeather forecasters said. "With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half."

There's also about a 15 percent chance a "Super El Niño could develop, forecasters said. That would make for a sharp reduction in storm activity.

AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms for the upcoming hurricane season. The historical average is 14 named storms. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States.

"On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes," AccuWeather said.

It's worth noting that a hurricane season can still be dangerous even if it is below average.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

RELATED:

• Updated Spring/Summer Forecast Released For MD: Here's What To Expect
• 2026 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 4 Major Storms Expected In Atlantic
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season

Patch editor Veronica Flesher contributed reporting.