Pittman Sounds Coronavirus Alarm At Town Hall As Cases Pass 6,000

ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY , MD — Anne Arundel County's coronavirus metrics are on the rise, and County Executive Steuart Pittman is getting concerned. The county passed 6,000 cases of the virus Monday morning, and local health experts say the growth is cause for concern.

Pittman organized an an "emergency town hall" on Monday with Anne Arundel County Health Officer Dr. Nilesh Kalyanaraman to discuss potential changes to curb the spread of coronavirus. The town hall, which was unplanned and announced four hours beforehand, was streamed across county channels for residents to ask questions and hear coronavirus updates.

“We are coming to you tonight because we don’t want to make these decisions behind closed doors,” Pittman said. “It’s just very important that all of us understand facts.”

Anne Arundel County counted 89 new coronavirus cases on Friday, data show. That was the most since June 15 when the county tallied a record-high 128 new cases. The county reported 48 additional cases of coronavirus on Sunday.

New cases bottomed out at 10 on June 23. The county has confirmed 6,003 coronavirus cases and 205 related deaths.

Hospitalizations remain relatively low, but they are on the rise. As of Monday, coronavirus had 46 Anne Arundel County residents in the hospital.

That's down from the April 21 peak of 172 hospitalizations. Fewer than 50 people have been hospitalized at a time since June 14. Monday's 46 hospitalizations are still the most the county has had since June 17.

While 46 hospital beds is a fraction of the county's health care occupancy, a slight flood of the system could be problematic Kalyanaraman said. When coronavirus first started to consume hospitals, they canceled routine or unnecessary treatments. Now that hospitals have reopened their doors for more optional care, they have fewer vacancies than they did during the onslaught of the virus, he said.

Anne Arundel County has the fifth most confirmed coronavirus cases in the state, according to the latest report from the Maryland Department of Health.

Gov. Larry Hogan's recent push has focused on testing at least 10 percent of every jurisdiction in the state. This will help identify the true scope of the virus, he says.

Anne Arundel County recently became the 17th of Maryland's 24 jurisdictions to pass the benchmark. The county has tested 10.5 percent of its population.

Now, the county's goal turns to testing 2 percent of its population every week. That totals about 11,000 weekly tests.

Kalyanaraman announced that goal on July 9. In the first week tracking that statistic, Anne Arundel County tested 1.5 percent of its population, conducting about 8,300 coronavirus tests.

The county understands that expanding testing will grow coronavirus totals. Kalyanaraman encourages residents to use the positivity rate as a gauge to determine whether the pandemic is worsening or whether testing is just identifying more patients.

Even with mass testing, a higher percentage of tests coming back positive indicates a growing problem. A lower positivity rate paired with high case totals shows that the spread is still growing, but at a more manageable rate.

Kalyanaraman said that a 5 percent positivity rate is a strong barometer for the county's control of the virus. If the county remains under that benchmark, things are heading in the right direction. The county's positivity rate, however, is threatening that threshold, Kalyanaraman said.

Climbing Positivity Rates, Hospital Worries

The county has also payed increased attention to the amount of infections-per-case. That number, which is determined by contact tracers, tracks the number of people infected by each person who has coronavirus.

If each coronavirus patient infects only one person, cases will grow at a steady, manageable rate. If infections-per-case slip above one infection-per-person, even slightly, cases will start to grow at an exponential clip.

"Anything less than 1.0 means that we are controlling the virus," Kalyanaraman said. "Anything more than 1.0 means that we’re not."

Pittman said the county's infections-per-case sat below 1.0 for most of June. Now, each coronavirus patient infects an average of 1.2 other people.

The county's infections-per-case peaked at 1.8 in mid March. It reached a low in June of less than 0.9.

“We were winning," Pittman said. “If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overwhelmed.”

Kalyanaraman attributes this spike to a growing number of contacts-per-coronavirus patient. He said patients used to average three or four contacts since their infection. Now, his team finds that patients are coming into contact with as many as 20 people between their infection and their diagnosis.

This stems in part from the county and state's reopening in mid June. Jurisdictions around the state moved into Phase Two of their reopening plans on June 12 and 19. Two weeks later, the county saw a spike in cases, Kalyanaraman said.

People with mild symptoms are also leaving their homes more often because businesses are reopening, he added. That creates more exposures and more cases.

Cases have also grown among younger people, according to Kalyanaraman. People younger than 40 account for 57 percent of the county's coronavirus cases. Though this age group accounts for 2 percent of the county's coronavirus-related deaths, they are likely to pass it on to older people who are more vulnerable.

Health experts at the Johns Hopkins University and the University of Maryland told Kalyanaraman that these statistics should raise concern. As the situation looks more bleak, Pittman and Kalyanaraman are looking for new ways to control the virus.

The Anne Arundel County Department of Health has discussed imposing a quarantine recommendation for travelers coming from states with growing coronavirus problems. Despite the talks, the department is unlikely to make that change, Kalyanaraman noted. Hogan said the state will not impose this travel restriction, and the county has followed suit.

Face Masks Required In County

On July 9, Pittman and Kalyanaraman announced that masks are required in all public places, both indoors and out, where social distancing is not possible. That mandate is still in effect, but the health department has received numerous complaints of business owners who are not enforcing the policy.

Kalyanaraman said police and health inspectors would focus on educating rather than punishing violators. He said police will issue fines to residents only after they received a warning for breaking the mask order. Police instead gave patrons a mask and a flyer explaining their importance.

"There were a couple of tense moments, but overall, people got it," Kalyanaraman said.

Now Kalyanaraman has turned his attention to businesses that are out of compliance. His team is considering issuing fines for the first infraction of health orders. Businesses would have to close if they broke coronavirus code a second time.

As of now, this is only an option that the county is considering. The policy is not yet in place.

Masks remain a top priority for Kalyanaraman. He said they are the single most effective way of preventing the spread of coronavirus in public places.

Research conducted by the University of Washington predicts that universal mask usage could drastically slow the spread of coronavirus. Compared to current projections, 45,000 fewer people would die from coronavirus if every American wore a mask in public, the study suggests.

While Maryland’s daily coronavirus cases have slowed, researchers believe that the state’s mask usage is far from universal. A University of Maryland survey found that, as of June 13, less than 40 percent of Marylanders report always wearing a mask in public.

"It’s not a political thing," Kalyanaraman said. "None of us care about your politics. We just want you to be safe. I don’t know how else to beg. I will beg if you need it. Please wear your mask."

Pittman did not officially announce any new measures during the town hall. Reissuing shutdown orders are Pittman's last resort, he said. He will do everything possible to keep county businesses open while also slowing the spread of coronavirus.

Pittman said he will reach out to Hogan on Tuesday to update the governor on the county's status and encourage him to listen to the guidance of health officers. Pittman is also meeting with his coronavirus response team on Tuesday to brainstorm solutions.

Hogan typically updates Marylanders on Wednesdays. Pittman said he hopes to come up with new measures by Thursday aligning with Hogan's guidance.

"The sooner you act, the less you have to act," Pittman said. "Waiting around is not a wise move."

RELATED:

• Classes Will Be Online This Fall, Anne Arundel schools Say
• School Year Should Start Online: Anne Arundel Teachers Union
• It's Unsafe To Return To School This Fall, Maryland Teachers Say
• Anne Arundel Schools Inch Closer To Plan For Fall Classes
• Superintendent George Arlotto removes Three Additional Items From reopening Consideration
• Approved Anne Arundel County Budget Slightly Lowers Property Tax
• Anne Arundel Sees Most New Coronavirus Cases In Month
• Masks Required Outside, County Gives Debit Cards To Unemployed
• Free Coronavirus Test Sites In Anne Arundel County: Full List
• 75% Of State Has Met Maryland's Testing Goal: Hogan

Have a story idea? Please contact me at jacob.baumgart@patch.com with any pitches, tips or questions. Follow me on Twitter @JacobBaumgart and on Facebook @JacobBaumgartJournalist to stay up-to-date with the latest Anne Arundel County and Prince George's County news.

This article was updated to say the town hall was on Monday. A previous version said it happened on Tuesday.