Hurricane Update: Florence Shifts Closer To PG County

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY, MD -- Former Hurricane Florence's projected track just took a dramatic shift in Prince George's County's direction, but it's still way too early to say whether or not we'll see any effects from the storm.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang tweeted a graphic late Thursday that shows a change in the track to one that is much closer to the coast, and therefore to PG County.

Florence weakened to a tropical storm not long after becoming a major hurricane, but it is expected to strengthen right back up to a category 3 or higher in the coming days. If it does make landfall on the United States coast, it would happen late next week.

CWG cautions that there is a "huge range of possibilities" for this storm, lest anyone start making emergency preparations for a direct hit on Prince George's County now. The storm might hit far to the south of the D.C. area, or it might roll up the coast and completely miss landfall altogether. In fact, the average of all simulations still has Florence staying just offshore.

"Whether it is a direct hit, a graze or near miss is unknowable for an event so far into the future," CWG wrote. "The storm is still 1,800 miles from the East Coast."

However, the track has shifted west in recent days, and there remains a strong possibility of landfall.

Even if the storm fails to make landfall, if it comes close enough to shore it could flood our area with heavy rain and pound the coastal zones. Strong winds could also cause problems. Should it move out to sea and stay well off the coast, the worst that would happen is strong waves and rip currents on the beaches.

Interestingly, landfall by such a storm is exceedingly rare. CWG notes that 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of the present location of Florence since 1851, but not a single one of them ever made landfall on the United States.

"So if this one does, it would be a remarkable outlier," they write -- while adding the caveat that the strong area of high pressure that is steering this storm is also very unusual.

So there's no need to panic right now -- even if there was a direct hit, Prince George's County is well insulated from hurricanes -- but you should certainly continue to monitor the storm in the coming days.

If you'd like, it can't hurt to make sure you have a good emergency kit with supplies for three days, and that you trim trees that could fall on your house.

But for now, just enjoy some of this nice, cool weather we're supposed to get this weekend.

Image: Hurricane Sandy in 2012. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)