The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its three-month winter forecast this week — falling in line with other long-range forecasts calling for a warmer winter across New England because of the expected super-sized El Niño.
An El Niño — a rise in ocean temperatures that experts say this year could be up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal — during the winter generally means warmer temperatures along the East Coast and New England.
NOAA and the National Weather Service concurred with that in their forecast this week — calling for a 40 to 50 percent chance of warmer days and nights across New England.
Warmer temperatures do not necessarily mean a lack of snowfall. Instead, storms will likely be more borderline between rain and snow than the frigid storms that in recent years brought a "fluff factor" of heavy snow and resulted in large snow and ice piles that lasted for weeks.
Snow that does fall is more likely to melt between storms with more rain along the immediate coast and heavier, wetter snow inland.
NOAA is also calling for above-normal precipitation with a 30 to 40 percent chance of a wetter and possibly snowier winter.
This weekend will bring a taste of winter to New England as sharply colder air moves in after Friday's rain.
High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to get out of the 40s and temperatures may crash through the 20s Saturday night outside of Boston with calming winds. Wind chills will be a factor for the first time this season with feels-like temperatures holding in the 30s for many on Saturday and dipping toward the teens Saturday night.
Temperatures are expected to moderate next week.
See Latest Forecast (NWS):
Friday
Showers, mainly before 1 p.m. High near 69. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 11 p.m, then a slight chance of showers after 2 a.m. Patchy fog before 9 p.m. Low around 47. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 52. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Saturday Night
Patchy frost after 3 a.m. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday
Patchy frost before 8 a.m. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. South wind 3 to 5 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. East wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 9 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 58. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Northeast wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph.
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