The override: we choose on the stories we believe

As the April 2nd override vote nears, the citywide discussion is full of facts and figures. I love data but in my experience we make choices based on the stories we believe to be true. This post is about those stories. The Yes story is:

“Over time, costs have risen and other sources of funding have not kept up or have gone down. School enrollment is rising. Proposition 2 ½ limits property tax growth and so despite our best efforts, Melrose now needs an override to avoid painful cuts across city services and education.”

In simple terms, here is what I see:

• After seven years of overall flat enrollment, the number of total students in our schools is rising. This will require increased spending.
• Healthcare premiums, to choose one cost category, are rising at 3-4% per year for Melrose. I review the health plan changes each year where I work and I can tell you that holding increases to 3-4% is a significant achievement. But this is not enough under Proposition 2 1/2. In simple terms, do I believe that city costs go up more than 2.5% per year, even with reasonable management? Yes, I do.
• Melrose education spending has been barely above the state minimum since 2009. Setting aside whether this spending level is what we want, from a budget perspective this means further school budget cuts can reasonably expected to be deeply painful and, after that, not possible.
• Finally, Mayor Infurna’s blog post of March 14th, which is here, describes the evolution of the current budget difficulties. This post will take about 10 minutes to read and I urge every citizen to do so before voting. I write this because what Mayor Infurna describes is exactly the pattern of cost cutting and financial scrambling that one would expect from a family, business or city working in good faith under increasing financial pressure. For example, our city has been funding the school operating budget with money left over from last year’s budget, which Mayor Infurna accurately compares to paying the mortgage (or rent) with a tax refund (a financial warning sign). We have taken out a bond for critical school supplies, which she compares to taking out a loan to pay for groceries (another financial warning sign). Both of these changes are in the last five years, which tells us the budget crunch is getting worse over time.

The Yes story is supported by fundamental facts and trends that have developed over the last 10 years. It matches what I see in my own work and day-to-day life. That’s why I’m voting Yes.

I also want to write about other stories that I have read or heard about town. These stories make it easy to vote No but I think the evidence shows these stories are not the reality of our situation (please, please note: I am not saying override opponents are acting with bad intent):

• Melrose is doing fine. Response: I’ve just shared my views on this above so I won’t repeat them. More specifically, the MTA highlights that Melrose produces roughly three million dollars in ‘left over cash’ per year, with implies we’re fine. In the municipal budget process, overseen by the state, expenses are set so that ‘left over cash’ will occur each year, barring negative events (e.g. many big snow storms). We could cut critical expenses and still produce ‘left over cash’ at the end of the fiscal year. And as noted above, it is unhealthy to rely on this money for operating budgets, which we’re doing each year.
• More spending doesn’t guarantee better education outcomes. Response: the override is about preventing a real drop off in the quality of education and services in our city, not about improving outcomes.
• The override is trying to turn Melrose into Winchester, Lexington or some other town. Response: we face serious cuts in many departments, and the override will help preserve the Melrose we care for.

Another story against the override is dissatisfaction with city government. Some say the city has not done enough to forecast future expenses or that it is not transparent enough. Well, we have educational outcomes that far exceed our per pupil spending, housing values have risen significantly in recent years, there are a wide range of city services, our bond rating has improved, and we have not had an override in more than 25 years. Here on Patch, Jason Buggy nicely describes improvements in playing fields since his childhood. The city and the Mayor have worked hard to share information about our financial situation. I see honest effort here, though I agree it is not perfect. And what I don’t see in this story -- and this troubles me deeply -- is an argument that Melrose does not have a problem with rising costs. “Don’t trust the bums” is easy to understand but it will not make our city function well next year. For those who seek greater accountability or transparency from city government, I respectfully suggest that we seek this through upcoming elections, not by voting against the override.

As you consider your vote, please ask yourself what story you want to be true, and what story you think actually is true.

Your vote is important and I hope you will join me in voting Yes on April 2nd.

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PS My post was long, but for those willing to read on, here’s a metaphor. Melrose is a car driving 55 MPH. The Yes position is that the gas gauge has slowly gone down despite reasonable - though not perfect - efforts to prevent this (air in the tires, keep the engine running efficiently, don’t turn on the AC too much, etc.) Now the low fuel light has turned on and we are imminently about to run out of gas unless we refuel (the override). From what I can tell, the No position is that we should not get gas because:

• “There is still gas in the extra tank in the trunk.” (free cash)
• “We are still going 55 MPH.” (student outcomes, bond rating)
• “We do not trust the driver.” (lack of transparency, lack of trust)
• “You have not said when we will need gas again.” (lack of forecasting)
• “You want to use the gas to go 75 MPH.” (change Melrose to some other city)

It concerns me deeply that these are not actually assurances that we can keep driving at 55 MPH.