Clinton's Lead Shrinks in Michigan Poll, Mirroring Swing State Trend

The race for Michigan’s 16 electoral votes has tightened again, with Republican nominee Donald Trump coming within 7 percentage points of Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll. Trump still faces an uphill climb in the battleground state, but 13 percent of voters remain undecided with less than two weeks before the election.

The Michigan poll reflects a tightening race nationally, where Clinton leads Trump, 45.8 percent to 40.0 percent, according to the latest polling average from Real Clear Politics.

It also mirrors results in other toss-up states that could decide the election. Trump has also cut Clinton’s lead in other battleground states, including electoral vote-rich Pennsylvania and Florida.

The Michigan poll, conducted for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV, shows Clinton leading Trump, 41 percent to 34 percent, in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The poll of 600 likely by EPIC-MRA of Lansing of 600 active and likely voters was was conducted Saturday through Monday, and 30 percent of respondents were contacted on their cell phones. The error margin is 4 percent.

Neither candidate is taking Michigan for granted. Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, plans a rally in Detroit Sunday, Ben Carson is stumping for Trump, and both Stein and Johnson have campaign events. Cher is headlining a Halloween fundraising event for Clinton in Bloomfield Hills Monday.

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Earlier this month, the same poll gave Clinton an 11-point edge. Her polling numbers are slightly larger than President Barack Obama’s were at this point in his 2012 re-election campaign (6 points) against Republican Mitt Romney, a Metro Detroit native, but Obama went on to win the state by 9 points.

The campaign has been one of the most negative in history, and both candidates have high unfavorable ratings — 61 percent for Trump and 53 percent for Clinton. At 13 percent, the number of undecided voters is more than double what it was at this time four years ago.

Independent voters made up 19 percent of those surveyed, and 32 percent of them said they still haven’t made up their minds. Trump holds a slight advantage over the former secretary of state, 26 percent to 25 percent, among that group. Johnson has 15 percent support among that group.

Michigan hasn’t been a red state in the presidential election since 1988, when voters chose President George H. Walker Bush over Democrat Michael Dukakis. For the New York businessman, real estate tycoon and reality television star to become the first Republican in nearly three decades to carry Michigan, he will need to sway the undecided camp and shore up his support with some key demographic groups, including women. The poll showed he is chipping away at what was a 20-point advantage for Clinton earlier this month. In this poll, Clinton still has a huge advantage over Trump among women, 45 percent to 30 percent.

He also needs to attract more black voters, and with only days remaining before Americans vote, that’s not likely to happen. Support among black voters was so low it didn’t register in the poll.

Trump has reclaimed his lead over Clinton among white voters, 41 percent to 33 percent, and has a slim advantage among men, 39 percent to 36 percent. In the earlier poll, Clinton led among both men and women.

Despite his improvement in the poll, “seven points is still significant,” EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Free Press. If Trump does win, it “would be one of the most remarkable comebacks in history.”

Photos by Gage Skidmore via Flickr Commons