Legacy Pols Win, Redistricting Mattered: 3 Takeaways From NJ's House Elections

NEW JERSEY — Elections throughout the nation will determine which party will hold Congressional majorities. But the dust has largely settled in New Jersey's House races.

The Associated Press has called every New Jersey race besides the 7th Congressional District, but Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded the election to Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. So barring any major surprises, Republicans will gain a seat in New Jersey's House delegation, but the Democratic Party will hold 9 of 12 seats.

Results remain unofficial until certified. But here are three takeaways from the current state of New Jersey's elections.

New Jersey and Virginia often give the nation a window into how midterms transpire, since both states hold gubernatorial races the year before. Last year's results — a closer-than-expected win for Gov. Phil Murphy and a GOP victory in Virginia — raised the potential for Republicans to dominate the midterms. But that didn't quite happen, with both parties still holding a chance at House and Senate majorities as of Wednesday afternoon.

Here are a few takeaways from New Jersey's results.

Legacy Candidates Prevail

New Jersey has two new representatives, and they both have familiar names: Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-7) and Rob Menendez Jr. (NJ-8) — the respective sons of former Gov. Tom Kean and Sen. Bob Menendez. While the elder Kean never held a Congressional seat, chairing the federal 9/11 Commission elevated his national profile.

Barring any major surprises, Kean and Menendez will be the only new faces in New Jersey's Congressional delegation. Menendez coasted to victory in heavily blue territory, while Kean defeated Rep. Tom Malinowski in a territory that became more favorable to Republicans after redistricting. Read more: Malinowski Concedes NJ District 7 Election To Republican Tom Kean Jr.

Menendez will replace Rep. Albio Sires, who didn't run for re-election.

While the U.S. doesn't have a royal family, the nation has plenty of political families, from the Bush's to the Clinton's to the Kennedy's. And making it as far as Congress becomes far easier with connections in high places.

So whether you like Tom Kean and/or Bob Menendez, or you're not a fan, New Jerseyans may hear both surnames in the political realm for a long time.

GOP Gains Despite Democrats Coasting

Most of New Jersey's Democratic incumbents cruised to victory in their House races. But the vote tallies as of Wednesday afternoon offer signs of Republican enthusiasm throughout the state.

Let's compare Tuesday night to the House elections in 2018 and 2020. In 2018, Democratic candidates flipped four Congressional seats, taking all but one — Rep. Jeff Van Drew (NJ-2) was a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party in December 2019.

The state has two Republicans in the current Congress and will add a third with Kean's victory. The current vote tallies give both incumbent Republicans — Van Drew and Rep. Chris Smith (NJ-4) — their strongest victory margins in the past three elections.

Even some of the Democratic strongholds have closer margins than 2018 and 2020, including the districts of Reps. Frank Pallone (NJ-6), Bill Pascrell (NJ-9), Donald Payne Jr. (NJ-10) and Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12).

Granted, some of those districts may remain out of reach for Republican victories in the near future — Payne still has 56 percent more votes than Republican David Pinckney. And Reps. Andy Kim (NJ-3) and Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) appear set to win by their greatest margins yet since winning their seats in 2018, despite talks during this election cycle of potential upsets in both districts.

This marked New Jersey's first election with the redrawn Congressional maps, which certainly played a factor in some results. But the Garden State will have this map for the next decade, so here's a look at how recent elections compared:

• 1st District: Democrats+31 in 2018, D+25 in 2020, D+26 in 2022
• 2nd District: D+7 in 2018, Republicans+5 in 2020, R+24 in 2022
• 3rd District: D+1 in 2018, D+8 in 2020, D+10 in 2022
• 4th District: R+12 in 2018, R+22 in 2020, R+36 in 2022
• 5th District: D+14 in 2018, D+8 in 2020, D+9 in 2022
• 6th District: D+27 in 2018, D+22 in 2020, D+15 in 2022
• 7th District: D+5 in 2018, D+1 in 2020, R+5 in 2022
• 8th District: D+60 in 2018, D+49 in 2020, D+49 in 2022
• 9th District: D+41 in 2018, D+34 in 2020, D+10 in 2022
• 10th District: D+77 in 2018, D+69 in 2020, D+56 in 2022
• 11th District: D+15 in 2018, D+7 in 2020, D+17 in 2022
• 12th District: D+37 in 2018, D+33 in 2020, D+22 in 2022

NJ's Low Turnout For Young Voters Wasn't A Harbinger

The majority of voters ages 18-29 have chosen Democrats in House elections every two years since 2000, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagements (CIRCLE) at Tufts University.

But last year, experts looked at youth turnout for the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia to try and gauge the demographic's interest in the midterms. Both produced relatively low youth turnout.

In New Jersey, only 20 percent of youth voted — down from 67 percent in the 2020 presidential election and the state's lowest figure since the 2017 gubernatorial race. Twenty-seven percent of Virginia youth voted in last year's gubernatorial race — down from 56 percent in the last presidential election and the state's lowest figure since the 2014 midterms.

But youth around the nation made a major impact on the midterms. Overall, 62 percent of the age group voted for Democrats, while 36 percent chose Republicans. And they held at least 10 percent of the vote in several key races with Democratic victories, including races for the Senate in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and gubernatorial elections in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Statistics on New Jersey's youth turnout in the 2022 House elections weren't immediately available.