NJ Hurricane Season: Updated Forecast Calls For More Storms In 2023

NEW JERSEY — Tropical storm activity is expected to ramp up in the Atlantic, and New Jersey officials are reminding residents to be prepared as the state approaches the typical time for hurricane activity.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the peak season in New Jersey running between August and late October.

An updated hurricane forecast from AccuWeather called for an increased number of increased storms, and said the Atlantic basin could become "very active" later this August. There have already been five tropical storms in 2023, said AccuWeather.

The weather agency forecasts 13 to 17 named storms this year in their update, higher than March's initial forecast of 11 to 15 storms.

AccuWeather said between four and eight of the predicted storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Two to four of these storms could directly impact East Coast states, said AccuWeather. Related article — Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

"This hurricane season could be the eighth in a row with the number of named storms being at or above the historical average of 14," said AccuWeather. "The last time a season ended below this benchmark was in 2015, when only 11 named systems developed."

In comparison, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecasted between 12 and 17 named storms in their Atlantic hurricane season predictions. Of these, between five and nine could become hurricanes (categorized as having winds over 73 mph) — with at least one major hurricane, and possibly up to four.

Weather patterns show that Northeastern states may be spared the worst of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather said — but forecasters are asking residents in hurricane-prone areas to get their plans in place.

The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management said "the time to prepare is now" for hurricane activity, in a social media post Aug. 1. State officials recommend that residents gather supplies and make a family communication plan.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters said that a driving factor behind weather patterns this fall will be the El Niño climate pattern in the eastern Pacific ocean, which can reshape the jet stream.

Water temperatures across the Atlantic basin are “running well above average” in many areas, as well, said AccuWeather forecasters – and that can affect the hurricane season on the East Coast. The water off the coast of south Florida measured more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit in late July, according to the National Weather Service. Warmer water means the tropical systems have a higher chance of rapidly intensifying if they develop, said AccuWeather.

New Jersey saw its last major hurricane when the remnants of Ida hit the state on Sept. 1, 2021, flooding towns and killing 30 people.

The worst hurricane on record to affect the Garden State, of course, is Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Sandy was the first hurricane in decades to make direct landfall in New Jersey, causing 40 deaths and reshaping the landscape of several Shore towns.

On the 10th anniversary of Sandy’s landfall, Patch took a look back at the storm’s impact on NJ and what has changed – or hasn’t. Take a look here.