Major Flooding Could Put Nor'easter In Jersey's Top 5 Worst

While much of New Jersey braces for significant snowfall this weekend, Jersey Shore communities are facing the potential for coastal flooding that ranks with the worst the state has ever seen.

The incoming nor’easter, which is packing winds of at least 50 mph, has the potential to cause major coastal flooding, particularly around Saturday morning’s high tide, according to the forecast discussion of the National Weather Service issued Wednesday afternoon.

Wave heights are forecast to be as much as 20 feet during the storm, the forecast said. That, combined with a full moon high tide and northeast winds that may gust to as much as 60 mph driving water onshore, could result in major flooding, forecasters said.

Read more: Hour-By-Hour Forecast Of Nor’easter Snowstorm In Jersey Shore, N.J.

The full moon arrives officially at 8:43 p.m. Saturday, about 90 minutes after the Saturday evening high tide at 7:19 p.m. at Barnegat Inlet. But the full moon’s influence on the tides will be felt all weekend.

Forecasters are predicting the Saturday morning high tide, which arrives between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m. on the oceanfront from Sandy Hook to Barnegat Inlet, will have the highest potential for major flooding, particularly in Ocean County. In Ocean County, the service says major flooding occurs at 8 feet or more above mean lower low water -- the average height of the lowest tide recorded at a tide station, according to the National Ocean Service.

Flooding begins at just over 6 feet in Ocean County’s back bays, according to the service.

The full moon high tide combined with wind-driven waves -- wave heights are forecast to be as much as 20 feet during the storm, and northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph that may gust to as much as 60 mph will drive water onshore and trap it there, they said. A storm surge of as much as 5 feet on top of the high tide could occur, according to the forecast discussion.

That could result in flooding as significant as some of the worst storms seen at the Shore, though forecasters do not believe it will reach the levels of Superstorm Sandy. It could potentially reach the level of the five worst, however, forecasters say.

Residents who live along the western edges of the bays will need to be alert as the morning progresses, because high tides in the back bays are typically 4 to 5 hours after the high tides on the oceanfront.

Read more: WEATHER UPDATE: Foot Of Snow To Bury N.J.; More Nor’easter Details Released

Those predictions have emergency management officials telling residents up and down the coast that now is the time to prepare.

In Brick Township, the Department of Public Works is offering free sandbags to residents who want to use them to shore up their properties. Mayor John Ducey said the township is not adding sand in front of the revetment wall, which protected the township during the storm in November. “We are using our manpower in more effective ways,“ he said.

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Toms River officials are urging residents of low-lying areas -- including the bayside where flooding is common during regular storms -- to move their vehicles to higher ground and secure belongings as a precaution. The Department of Public Works has been working to shore up any potential weaknessses along the dunes in Ortley Beach since the beginning of the week.

Berkeley Township officials have told residents of low-lying streets that flood frequently that they can park vehicles at Central Regional Middle School.

In Monmouth County, Rumson officials are warning residents of several streets, including Waterman Avenue and Shrewsbury Drive, as well as the Avenue of Two Rivers, to be alert for flooding.

Aberdeen police are telling residents to be aware and prepare as well, and reminding residents not to drive on flooded roads.

“Often motorists ignore our warning and try to drive through, and don’t realize how high the water is,” Aberdeen Deputy Police Chief Rich Derechailo said. “Please do not ignore signs. If roads are closed, they are closed for a reason.”

In Belmar, construction equipment was moving sand into place to provide a barrier for that town from the waves, according to a tweet from Brian Thompson of NBC 4 in New York:

The National Weather Service lists the following storms as the worst seen in Ocean and Burlington counties in terms of flooding. The records are based on water levels recorded in Atlantic City going back to August 1911. All heights are in mean lower low water:

9.0 FT — December 11, 1992.

8.8 FT — September 14, 1944 (Hurricane) / October 29, 2012 (Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy).

8.6 FT — September 27, 1985 (Hurricane Gloria) / October 31, 1991.

8.4 FT — March 6, 1962 / August 9, 1976 (Hurricane Belle).

8.2 FT — November 25, 1950.

8.0 FT — MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS.

8.0 FT -- March 29, 1984.

7.8 FT — October 25, 1980 / January 4, 1992.

7.6 FT — January 2, 1987 / March 19, 1996.

7.5 FT — October 14, 1977 / March 2, 1994 / June 4, 2012.

7.4 FT — December 22, 1972 / October 18, 2009.

7.3 FT — October 23, 1953 / December 20, 1995 / October 7, 2006 / November 13, 2009.

7.2 FT — September 12, 1960 (Hurricane Donna) / October 22, 1961 / December 9, 1973 / September 25, 1977 / September 26, 1992 (Tropical Storm Danielle) / November 14, 1997 / February 5, 1998 / October 29, 2011 / January 3, 2014.

7.1 FT — November 1, 1947 / January 23, 1966 / February 19, 1972 / November 15, 1981 / December 13, 1996 / January 28, 1998 / January 25, 2000 / January 3, 2003 / December 11, 2003 / May 25, 2005 / January 31, 2006.

7.0 FT — MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS.

7.0 FT -- November 30, 1944 / August 28, 1971 (Tropical Storm Doria) / December 2, 1974 / February 26, 1979 / January 10, 1993 / December 6, 1996 / December 25, 2002 / May 12, 2008 / March 9, 2013 / December 9, 2014.

Flooding occurs on Barnegat Avenue and Central Avenue in Surf City*. Extensive flooding occurs on Long Beach Boulevard from Ship Bottom to Beach Haven*.

6.8 FT — Flooding occurs along local roads in Ocean Gate*, including Bay View Avenue. Flooding occurs along local roads in Mystic Islands (Little Egg Harbor Township*).

6.6 FT — In eastern Burlington County - Flooding begins in Green Bank and Lower Bank (both in Washington Township*). In eastern Burlington County - Flooding begins around the Burlington County Route 542 bridge at Wading River*.

6.4 FT — Flooding begins in Brick Township*, Dover Township*, Beachwood*, Berkeley Township*, Lacey Township* and Ocean Township*. Flooding occurs along local roads in Barnegat Township*, including Bay Shore Drive and East Bay Avenue. Bayside flooding occurs in Harvey Cedars*. Flooding occurs at the east end of the NJ Route 72 bridge in Ship Bottom*. Flooding occurs along local roads in Tuckerton*, including South Green Street.

6.3 FT — COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

6.2 FT — Flooding occurs in Point Pleasant Beach* along NJ Route 35 at Broadway. Flooding begins in communities from Point Pleasant* to Seaside Park*. Flooding occurs along local roads in Stafford Township* (Beach Haven West and Cedar Bonnet Islands). Flooding begins in Surf City*, Ship Bottom* (along Long Beach Boulevard) and in the communities on the south half of Long Beach Island (including Beach Haven*).

6.0 FT — MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS.

IN MONMOUTH COUNTY, the top 10 flooding events occurred on the following dates, according to National Ocean Service records (since 1932; records with an asterisk are approximated heights based on mean highest high water, the average of the high tides for the site):

8.01 -- October 29, 2012, Superstorm Sandy

4.86* -- September 12, 1960

4.85 -- December 11, 1992

4.54 -- August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene

4.46* -- November 7, 1953

4.16 -- Septenber 14, 1944

4.16 -- March 6, 1962

3.80 -- March 13, 2010

3.76* -- November 25, 1950

3.58 -- November 12, 1968