Stockton Poll: Third Congressional District Race Tied

Democrat Aimee Belgard and Republican Tom MacArthur are tied in the early going of their Third Congressional District race, according to a poll released Monday by the Stockton Polling Institute.

Each candidate garnered 42.2 percent of the 606 likely voters polled earlier this month. Another 12.8 percent were undecided, while 2.9 percent said they support no one, someone else or refused to answer.

The poll was conducted by the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy. Live interviewers on the Stockton campus called both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 12-14, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.

“A congressional race this close will continue to draw national attention to New Jersey,” Daniel J. Douglas, director of the Hughes Center, said. “The candidates will be fighting over a relatively small number of undecided voters from now to Election Day.”

The national Democratic and Republican parties have both targeted the seat, which is being vacated by retiring Congressman Jon Runyan.

The district covers parts of Burlington and Ocean counties, and has long been considered heavily Republican.

In Burlington County, Belgard leads with 45 percent of the vote to MacArthur’s 39 percent.

In Ocean County, MacArthur leads with 47 percent of the vote to Belgard’s 38 percent.

Last month, MacArthur took aim at the national Democratic Congressional Committee for an advertisement that was found to have misled voters into believing MacArthur cheated disaster victims.

Around the same time, MSNBC featured Belgard as part of its “30 in 30” Women Candidates to Watch series.

Each candidate is viewed favorably by about 40 percent of respondents, with 40.6 percent viewing MacArthur favorably and 38.1 percent viewing Belgard favorably.

Belgard is rated unfavorably by 26.1 percent and MacArthur is rated unfavorably by 21.1 percent.

Over 30 percent of those polled were not able to identify one candidate or the other.

A total of 36.6 percent of those polled are unable to identify MacArthur, while 33.5 percent are unable to identify Belgard.

Election Day is Nov. 4.