Farmers' Almanac: NJ Spring, Summer Forecast For 2019

The Farmers’ Almanac has not-so-good news for New Jersey.

The rain and thunderstorms just won't stop. Not right away. In fact, we may not see consistently pleasant conditions until September.

And some of those storms could be pretty damaging. Tornadoes are even possible.

The almanac, which has purported to forecast weather conditions since 1818, recently released its summer 2019 outlook for the United States.

The almanac — not to be confused with the old Farmer’s Almanac, which was founded in 1792 — forecasted a muggy and wet summer for the New Jersey region, including “above-normal” precipitation.

“Much of our summer forecast predicts lots of rain, thunderstorms, and wetness during July and August in the Northeast and New England areas” editor Pete Geiger said in a release.

He added that more clouds and showers would probably keep temperatures below the 12 expected 90-degree days that could otherwise be in store. That being said, residents in these areas should count on days with temperatures well into the 80s.

“Add to that the above-normal precipitation, and you’ve got oppressively humid and uncomfortable conditions,” he said.

States in the North- and South-central should expect to see “dangerous weather” in late June, the almanac said. This includes thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and even “devastating” tornadoes.

Here is what is predicted for the New Jersey region through June:

MAY 2019

• 12th-15th.Unsettled weather, with a few light rain showers arriving from the south.
• 16th-19th.Skies gradually clear; milder temperatures. Favorable weather for Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
• 20th-23rd.Very warm.
• 24th-27th.Frequent rain showers, then fresh, colder air sweeps into New England by Memorial Day
• 28th-31st.Clearing skies.

JUNE 2019

• 1st-3rd.Thunderstorms clear out, turns cooler.
• 4th-7th.Foggy. Rain and thunderstorms New England to points south.
• 8th-11th.Clear, cool air passes into New England and then quickly heats up. The Belmont Stakes should see fair skies.

Here is the National Weather Service forecast for the rest of the week:

• Tuesday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Tuesday night: A chance of showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Northwest wind around 11 mph.
• Wednesday night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Thursday: A chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Thursday night: A slight chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Friday: A chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The South will see oppressive humidity in July, the almanac said, coupled with frequent thunderstorms from the Carolinas down to Georgia. The Southeast will bear the brunt of the hurricane season, with the almanac predicting a tropical disturbance in mid- to late- May, even though the season doesn’t begin until June. A tropical storm could then threaten the region in mid-June, mid-September and mid-October.

The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest will see heat and humidity in June followed by storms and warm temperatures in July. Less rain was expected west of the Mississippi River, but summer storms — with potentially dangerous hail — were also forecasted for the region overall, with severe weather possible in late July.

Lastly, the Pacific Northwest was projected to see pleasant and fair temperatures through August, but an atypically dry summer despite early rains.

The Farmers’ Almanac has been published annually for more than 200 years, offering long-term weather predictions for the US and Canada. It also contains information on gardening, cooking, home remedies and more. It distributes about 1.7 million copies a year.

Both the new and old almanacs purport to have accuracy rates of about 80 percent and the sun factors into both predictions. The new uses a formula that takes into consideration things like sunspot activity, the moon’s tidal action and the position of other planets. The old uses sunspot activity as well, in addition to climatology and meteorology.

Notably, the two made dueling weather forecasts last year, with the old calling for a mild winter and the new calling for a “teeth-chattering cold” season. For what it’s worth, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a warmer-than-usual winter across the U.S. last year, since it was an El Nino winter season.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.