A slow advancing warm front over the southern Mid Atlantic and a strong high pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes will transport a cool, wet marine air mass into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas today that will set up a very heavy rainfall tonight on through Thursday morning. Flash and Urban flooding is a significant threat through the forecast period as a result as two to five inches of rain is expected to fall.
Today, expect overcast skies with showers developing through the day. The showers will become widespread by this evening. Winds will be from the east at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50's over the New York City metropolitan area and immediate coast and mid to upper 50's over the Philadelphia metropolitan areas.
Tonight on through Thursday morning, a very slow moving warm front will inch northeast towards and then through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas. Periods of heavy rain can be expected with embedded thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts over 50 mph and intense heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts will range from two to five inches over much of the region, one to three inches over eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. Localized urban and flash flooding is a significant threat with this rain storm along with very poor driving conditions and visibility below 2 miles at times. Winds will be from the east at 15 to 25 mph through the forecast period. Temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 40's for lows and upper 50's to lower 60's for highs.
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On Thursday, the warm front will lift northeast into New England with periods of rain in the morning followed by clearing skies in the afternoon. A cold front will approach in the evening with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms will feature wind gusts over 50 mph, small hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Winds will veer to the southwest at 10 to 20 mph ahead of the cold front and then veer to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph behind the cold front in the evening. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50's for lows and lower to mid 70's for highs, mid to upper 60's over Long Island.
High pressure will take hold Friday on through Monday with scattered cloud cover. An isolated shower is possible from time to time due to disturbances passing to the north. Otherwise, tranquil and comfortable weather conditions are expected. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40's for lows and mid to upper 60's for highs.
